Bitcoin traded around $114,000 on Tuesday while Ethereum held steady at $4,120 as crypto markets entered a critical week. The coming days will bring multiple events that could shape price direction for the remainder of 2025.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Thursday at the APEC summit in Seoul. Prediction markets show strong confidence in a positive outcome. Polymarket traders have priced in a 92% chance that the two countries will sign a tariff agreement by November 10.
The optimism follows constructive talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in Malaysia over the weekend. Bitcoin briefly touched $116,200 on Sunday before pulling back. Mining stocks including Hut 8, CleanSpark, and IREN gained 2-3% on the news.
However, traders remain cautious about a complete resolution. A separate Polymarket contract shows only 36% odds that China will lift its rare-earth export ban by year-end. This gap suggests markets expect progress on tariffs but continued competition over strategic materials.
Federal Reserve Decision Adds Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. Markets expect a second interest rate cut after the central bank pivoted to easing earlier this year. Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be watched closely for hints about a possible December rate cut.
Singapore-based QCP Capital noted the Trump-Xi outcome “may shape crypto’s near-term path more than Wednesday’s Fed rate decision.” The firm pointed to speculation that the Fed could end its three-year quantitative tightening program. Such a move would add liquidity to markets and support risk assets.
The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has complicated the Fed’s outlook. The shutdown, now at 26 days, has limited the flow of economic data that policymakers typically use to make decisions.
Tech Earnings and Market Conditions
Major technology companies will report earnings throughout the week. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google are all scheduled to release results. These reports will provide information about consumer spending and business conditions.
Stock markets reached new records on Monday. The S&P 500 closed above 6,800 for the first time. Futures markets showed little movement on Tuesday morning as investors awaited the week’s key events.
Trump signed deals on rare earths and trade with Japan on Tuesday during a visit with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo. The president praised Japan’s new leader and welcomed her pledge to increase military spending.
Bitcoin’s October Performance
Bitcoin remains roughly flat for October, putting its seven-year streak of positive Octobers at risk. The pattern, known as “Uptober” among traders, has held since 2018. QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin needs to reclaim $116,000 to close the month positively.
Derivatives data shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum risk reversals have turned neutral after weeks of defensive positioning. This indicates traders are less worried about near-term price drops. Gold prices rebounded slightly to $4,021 per ounce after falling below $4,000 on Monday.
QCP Capital warned that a clear bullish trend is unlikely until Bitcoin moves back above $116,000. The convergence of political meetings, central bank policy, and corporate earnings creates conditions for high volatility this week.
