Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical juncture this week, aiming to break through key resistance levels as traders prepare for the US Federal Reserve meeting later today. This pivotal event may set the tone for risk assets as we enter November. Recently, market volatility has been on the rise, with investors closely watching for any indications that the Fed might ease its strict policies in light of slowing macroeconomic indicators.
Top analyst Darkfost has highlighted an intriguing shift in the market’s dynamic, noting that on-chain data shows the BTC Stablecoin Reserve Ratio on Binance is once again signaling a buying opportunity. Historically, such signals have often preceded upward price movements. This current indication follows weeks of turbulence stemming from the October 10 liquidation event, which wiped out billions in leveraged positions across exchanges. The ensuing chaos in the derivatives market has further intensified volatility, raising questions about investor confidence.
While some market participants are opting to hedge or transition to stablecoins, others are seizing the downturn as an opportunity to accumulate. This behavior is evident in the changes to Binance’s reserve ratios, as Bitcoin stabilizes around these critical price levels. Traders are positioning themselves for what could potentially be the next significant market shift, heavily influenced by macroeconomic policy and liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin Indicator Flashes Buy Signal For The Third Time This Cycle
On-chain analyst Darkfost reports that recent market activity has caused notable shifts within Binance’s reserves of both stablecoins and Bitcoin. One clear narrative has emerged from the post-liquidation recovery: the BTC/Stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance is now indicating a buy signal for the third time this cycle. Historical data shows that this pattern often precedes strong upward movements in Bitcoin’s price.
Darkfost emphasizes that this signal appeared at critical turning points previously. For instance, in January 2023, Bitcoin surged from $16,600 to $24,800 after a similar signal. The second instance, which occurred in March 2023, came before an explosive rally from $20,300 to an astonishing $73,000, marking the onset of a bullish phase. Most recently, in March 2025, the same signal preceded another significant price jump, from $78,600 to $123,500.
This recurring bullish signal reflects a structural change within Binance’s reserves: an increasing volume of stablecoin holdings relative to Bitcoin reserves. In essence, a growing number of stablecoins are now prepared to enter the market, while Bitcoin reserves are dwindling. Such a bullish scenario often paves the way for a supply shock, where buying demand exceeds available supply, fostering the conditions for a price reversal.
What makes this current setup particularly intriguing is its context. Such patterns typically emerge during bear markets or after substantial corrections, marking the beginning of accumulation phases that seek to restore market strength. Observing this dynamic now, especially as Bitcoin consolidates near key support levels, indicates that large holders and institutional players may already be positioning themselves for the next ascent in price.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance As Bulls Attempt To Reclaim Momentum
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around the $112,900 mark, showing signs of early recovery following a bounce from its 200-day moving average near $108,000. The current price structure indicates that Bitcoin is striving to regain bullish momentum, albeit facing significant resistance around $117,500, a threshold that has capped multiple rallies since late August.
The convergence of the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages in the $114,000–$115,000 range further underscores this area as a short-term barrier. A decisive breakout and daily close above this zone would signal renewed buying strength, potentially leading the price towards the $120,000–$123,000 range where prior liquidity clusters exist.
The 200-day moving average remains the crucial support level to watch. As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above this threshold, the broader uptrend structure remains intact despite recent volatility. However, a close beneath the $108,000 mark could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction toward $102,500, where the next significant support lies.
Amid the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, market participants are adopting a cautious stance, weighing macroeconomic uncertainties against improving on-chain metrics. This ongoing consolidation might serve as a pre-breakout accumulation phase, with pivotal movements anticipated following clarity on policy and liquidity direction.
