Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating critical demand levels as traders await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting, a pivotal event that could dictate market direction in the weeks ahead. The atmosphere is marked by caution and tension, with heightened volatility expected following the Fed’s announcements on interest rates and quantitative tightening (QT). A dovish stance could spark renewed buying momentum across risk assets, while a commitment to restrictive policies might prolong the current consolidation.
Fresh insights from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal that Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have been actively divesting their Bitcoin holdings over the past month—an activity that underscores an ongoing distribution phase in Bitcoin’s market cycle. In the last 30 days, these seasoned investors have sold off considerable amounts of BTC, indicative of profit-taking after a period of accumulation earlier this year.
While short-term traders are eagerly watching for signs of a breakout, the persistent selling pressure from long-term holders presents a layer of caution. Analysts suggest that such distribution activities often occur during mid-cycle transitions, where capital rotates from patient holders to new market participants. How Bitcoin reacts to the Federal Reserve’s announcement could determine whether this phase transitions into renewed strength or deeper consolidation.
Anticipating Volatility in Bitcoin’s Market
Analyst Maartunn has reported that Long-Term Holders have offloaded approximately 325,600 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the sharpest monthly drop since July 2025. This substantial wave of distribution signals a significant shift in market dynamics, indicating that even the most patient investors are either taking profits or repositioning amid escalating macroeconomic uncertainty. Historically, major sell-offs by LTHs tend to occur at crucial junctures—either during late-stage rallies or deep consolidation phases, as capital begins circulating back into the market.
The timing of this distribution is of particular interest, coinciding with Bitcoin’s current consolidation around the $112,000–$113,000 range and the looming policy announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Although long-term holder selling can pressure prices initially, it often sets the stage for new investors to accumulate at more advantageous levels. Once this supply redistributes and the selling momentum fades, the market may stabilize, allowing for a stronger base before the next upward move.
Maartunn’s analysis suggests this could indicate a healthy market rotation rather than the onset of a more significant downtrend. If Bitcoin can maintain levels above its 200-day moving average and liquidity remains robust, the recent LTH sell-off might ultimately serve as a reset phase—transitioning supply from veteran holders to newer investors in anticipation of a forthcoming bullish impulse.
As the market looks ahead, Bitcoin’s next significant move will likely hinge on macroeconomic conditions, particularly the Fed’s approach to interest rates and liquidity management. A dovish or neutral tone could rekindle demand and absorb the excess supply, while a hawkish stance could extend the consolidation period. Either way, this environment seems to be setting the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next decisive movement.
Runtime Reality Check: Bitcoin’s Struggle with Resistance
Currently trading at approximately $113,130, Bitcoin is exhibiting mild weakness after failing to break through the $117,500 resistance, a crucial supply zone that has thwarted several advancements this month. The 4-hour chart indicates a clear rejection near this level, followed by a pullback that has brought BTC closer to its 50-period moving average, which now serves as intraday support.
Beneath current levels, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages form a robust confluence of support between $111,000 and $112,000. As long as Bitcoin remains above this critical zone, the broader structure appears constructive, suggesting that the recent pullback may simply be a prelude to another breakout attempt.
A confirmed breach of the $117,500 mark would negate the short-term bearish setup and potentially elevate Bitcoin towards the $120,000–$123,000 range, where additional resistance is likely to be encountered. Conversely, a close below $111,500 could trigger deeper corrections towards the $108,000 mark—a strong reaction zone observed earlier this month.
As the market braces for potential shifts in the coming weeks, investors are reminded that vigilance and analysis will be essential in navigating these turbulent waters.
