Amid a turbulent market, Bitcoin’s retreat to the mid-$90,000s has reignited a fervent debate among analysts: Are we witnessing the onset of a genuine bear market, or is this merely a sharp reset within an ongoing uptrend?
Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Here?
Macro swing trader known as “The Great Mattsby” argues that Bitcoin is currently following a familiar structural pattern. He recalls how, in 2024, BTC spent seven months consolidating in the $70,000 to $50,000 range before breaking out. Citing Fibonacci retracement levels from March 2024’s peak to November 2022’s low, he notes that Bitcoin recently tagged the 0.618 retracement at $51,518, even dipping slightly below it before bouncing back.
Applying a new set of fibs drawn from the October 2025 peak to the August 2024 low, Mattsby highlights that this key level has now repositioned itself to around $96,975, with prices currently trading just below it—echoing patterns seen in 2024.
With November nearing its end, Mattsby emphasizes that the month’s close is more telling than intramonth fluctuations: “If BTC holds the $96,000 to $97,000 zone through a monthly close in November, we could see a setup similar to last year, followed by a potential run to new all-time highs.”
Contrastingly, market analyst Rekt Capital expresses more concern over the recent price decline. He notes that the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) has been pivotal in this cycle’s bullish structure, asserting, “Bear markets confirm when the bullish structures that supported continued bullish momentum start to fail.” His analysis indicates the current weekly candle is decisively below the 50-week EMA, which previously served as support. He predicts a high probability that the weekly close may indeed fall below this critical level, and he underscores that upcoming reactions will be “macro trend-defining.”
Insights from Bitcoin On-Chain Data
In stark contrast to the price action, on-chain data provides a different perspective. Analyst Frank shared data illustrating the Short-Term Holder MVRV metric, which gauges the profitability of recent buyers compared to their cost basis using standard deviation bands. The recent downturn has pushed MVRV into a typically reactive zone, between one and negative one standard deviation, suggesting possible significant price bounces in the past when similar levels were reached.
Frank adopts a straightforward strategy: “I see standard deviation moves to the downside as buying opportunities. They are infrequent but tend to yield excellent results.”
Meanwhile, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, analyzes the current selling dynamics, suggesting this price drop reflects internal rotation among long-term Bitcoin holders rather than widespread selling. He remarks that seasoned investors are divesting to traditional finance players, who are expected to hold for the long term. Notably, Ju forecasts that the current market landscape, bolstered by the influx from ETFs and institutional investors, supports sustained liquidity, rendering cycle theory nominal until these channels cease operations.
Ultimately, the current technical landscape appears precarious, with the 50-week EMA and the $96,000–$97,000 Fibonacci range marking pivotal resistance points. Should Bitcoin manage to secure a weekly close above the EMA and a monthly close above the retracement level, the argument for this period as a deep yet standard consolidation will gain traction. Conversely, failure at these critical junctures will lend credence to the bear-market narrative.
As of now, Bitcoin trades at approximately $93,938, with market observers keenly watching how the next few weekly and monthly candles will close amid the prevailing noise.
