Bitcoin is currently navigating turbulent waters, struggling to maintain its position above the $95,000 threshold as uncertainty looms over the market. Traders are grappling with the question of whether the recent price correction signifies the commencement of a broader downtrend or merely a fleeting shakeout. As a result, sentiment has shifted towards extreme caution, erasing months of bullish momentum.
Experts are divided in their outlooks for Bitcoin’s next move. Some analysts caution that the cryptocurrency might be entering the early stages of a bear market, pointing to waning momentum and increasing losses among short-term holders. Conversely, a faction believes this consolidation phase could be a precursor to a significant recovery, positioning Bitcoin for potential surges that may eclipse previous all-time highs once market sentiment stabilizes.
Despite the recent volatility, on-chain data provides a silver lining of optimism. As per insights from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is currently trading above the ETF Realized Price, which reflects that institutional investors, on average, remain in profit—even amid a backdrop of retail apprehension.
ETF Investors Remain in Profit Despite Market Fear
Leading analyst Maartunn has highlighted that Bitcoin’s ETF Realized Price—representing the average cost basis of all spot Bitcoin ETF holders—stands at $86,680. With Bitcoin trading approximately 9% above this pivotal level, the data suggests that most ETF investors remain in profit despite ongoing market fluctuations.
This metric is vital for gauging institutional sentiment. The fact that Bitcoin sustains a trading position above the ETF investors’ cost basis indicates resilience in institutional demand, even as retail sentiment leans bearish. Historically, whenever Bitcoin holds above critical realized price levels during corrections, it signals an underlying strength that mitigates the likelihood of entering a prolonged bear phase.
Moreover, steady ETF inflows further underscore that long-term holders are not engaging in panic selling amidst market weakness. Unlike short-term traders who often react emotionally to price swings, these investors typically view dips as strategic opportunities to accumulate rather than liquidate.
If Bitcoin can retain its standing above the ETF Realized Price, it would solidify this structural support and potentially act as a springboard for recovery once market sentiment transitions from fear to cautious optimism.
Bitcoin Finds Support Amid Heightened Market Fear
From a technical perspective, the weekly Bitcoin chart illustrates the cryptocurrency hovering just above the $95,000 mark, striving to stabilize after weeks of relentless selling pressure. This situation marks a significant moment; it is the first instance since May that BTC has revisited this zone, which now serves as a crucial support level, both technically and psychologically. The rapid decline from the recent highs near $120,000 reflects a shift in market sentiment dominated by fear and uncertainty.
The 50-week moving average currently lies around $94,000, making Bitcoin’s ability to stay above it pivotal in defining the next phase of the market. Historically, the 50-week moving average has served as a reliable support line during mid-cycle corrections, signaling accumulation territories rather than the onset of lengthy bear markets.
Additionally, the 200-week moving average remains significantly lower, around $70,000, indicating that Bitcoin’s macro trend is still intact. Volume data further hints at a potential capitulation phase, characterized by rising trading activity amid recent sell pressure, suggesting that stronger hands may be absorbing the weak supply currently flooding the market.
If Bitcoin holds its ground in this range, a rebound toward the $100,000–$105,000 territory could emerge. However, failing to secure the $95,000 mark would expose the market to further downside risks, possibly inviting additional tests of lower support levels before stabilization returns.
