Bitcoin closed November with a striking 17% decrease, marking its second-worst performance for that month in the cryptocurrency’s history. In light of these figures, economist Peter Schiff has voiced concerns that the downward trend will persist into December, even as other financial assets demonstrate strength and macroeconomic conditions appear to shift in a favorable direction.
After reaching a staggering high of nearly $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has notably retreated, currently trading around $90,500. This decline has left it down approximately 4% year-to-date, a stark contrast to its earlier triumphs. Schiff argues that Bitcoin’s struggle to function as a reliable store of wealth has compounded its recent troubles.
Bitcoin’s Historically Strong Month Turns Sour
Typically, November is one of Bitcoin’s best months, often boasting an average return exceeding 40%. However, this year tells a different story, as the cryptocurrency suffered a 17.5% drop according to data from CoinGlass. This slump has effectively wiped out all gains for Bitcoin in 2025, plunging it into the red.
Contrastingly, Schiff highlighted the positive performance of silver, which gained 16.5% in November and has surged 95% year-to-date. He remarked, “Bitcoin is now the mirror image of silver. Since silver will likely go much higher, that means its mirror image will likely crash.” This comparison raises eyebrows regarding Bitcoin’s long-term stability compared to commodities like silver and gold, which have seen impressive gains without major corporate involvement.
Corporate Acquisition Models Raise Doubts
Schiff also expressed unease about Bitcoin’s adoption as a treasury reserve asset among public companies. He critiqued the approach taken by firms such as MicroStrategy, noting their dependence on debt and equity issuance to finance further Bitcoin acquisitions.
Highlighting this model’s risks, Schiff warned that if a company’s stock price falls below the value of its Bitcoin assets, it could disrupt the entire structure of their holdings. “The moment the stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, the entire yield loop breaks,” he cautioned, indicating that this vulnerability could force companies to liquidate their Bitcoin during market downturns, amplifying any market decline.
Historical Precedents Hint at Continued Declines
Historical patterns further bolster Schiff’s cautious outlook. Data indicates that when Bitcoin ends November on a down note, December often follows suit with similar losses. This trend was observed in consecutive years, including 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, forming a compelling case for skepticism heading into the last month of the year.
Despite Schiff’s outlook, optimism remains within the crypto community. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggested that the market bottom may already be in, asserting that Bitcoin will likely find stability above the $80,000 mark. However, current market dynamics do not yet reflect this sentiment as downward pressures prevail.
Macroeconomic Landscape Offers Possible Relief
Amid these challenges, some analysts believe that macroeconomic factors could usher in a much-needed shift for Bitcoin. Expectations are building that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in December, with a 25-basis-point cut deemed likely to happen with an 85% probability. Additionally, the central bank is anticipated to wrap up its quantitative tightening program, which could potentially revitalize risk assets like Bitcoin.
Cathie Wood from Ark Invest has noted that the ongoing liquidity squeeze could alleviate next month, possibly benefitting crypto and other volatile investments. Nonetheless, so far, these anticipated changes have yet to ignite a recovery in Bitcoin’s fortunes.
Despite a market cap stabilizing around $1.8 trillion and a surge in 24-hour trading volumes by over 16%, investor caution looms as Bitcoin’s persistent downward trend continues to unfold, leaving many to wonder whether December will bring solace or further strain.
