The cryptocurrency market has had a year filled with ups and downs, with most large-cap digital assets performing unequally throughout 2025. After a challenging start, Bitcoin began to gain momentum in the second and third quarters, reaching impressive highs within a six-month span.
However, as the year nears its end, the flagship cryptocurrency has faced headwinds in recent months, suggesting it may conclude 2025 in negative territory. Yet, intriguing on-chain metrics and historical trends indicate that Bitcoin might still achieve a stronger year-end finish than many anticipate.
No Negative Days Left In 2025, But 2026 Could Feature A Deep Correction
On Saturday, December 6, Alphractal’s CEO Joao Wedson took to social media to detail what investors can expect from Bitcoin as 2025 closes out. According to Wedson, the market leader is on track to finish the year within a largely stagnant price range.
Key to understanding this situation is the Yearly Accumulated Negative Days metric, which assesses market resilience by tracking the days when an asset closes lower than the previous day. Historically, Bitcoin has averaged around 170 negative days per year, a statistic that highlights the stress threshold faced by the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
As of now, Bitcoin has already accumulated 171 negative days this year. Wedson noted that typically, when the annual negative days approach or surpass this threshold, selling pressure diminishes due to investor fatigue.
He emphasized that exceeding this threshold “strongly suggests” that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience further negative days in the remaining weeks of 2025. If a deeper correction is in play, he posits it will most likely impact the cryptocurrency in the upcoming year.
Despite the cautious optimism, Wedson indicated that Bitcoin is probably set to finish the year within a consolidation phase. This forecast aligns with observations of reduced capital flow into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which points to a lack of robust market demand.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at approximately $89,397, reflecting a slight dip of 0.3% in the past 24 hours.
