Cardano (ADA) is currently trading at $0.4185, a stark contrast from its year-to-date high of $1.3202, as it approaches a significant support trendline that has held since June 2023. The crypto community is buzzing with anticipation for the launch of the Midnight sidechain mainnet on Monday, which promises the introduction of its native NIGHT token, already confirmed for listings on major exchanges like Bybit, Gate, and OKX.
ADA’s current price places it at its lowest level since November 2024, following a dramatic fall from its all-time high of $3. The token now finds itself testing an ascending trendline connecting the deepest valleys seen since mid-2023. The Midnight project, which has been in the works for several years, aims to enhance utility within the Cardano network and attract new developers, potentially providing a much-needed boost in activity.
On Monday, trading for NIGHT will commence as the mainnet goes live. Major exchanges support its launch, a crucial development for the Cardano ecosystem as it seeks to expand its offerings.
The NIGHT token will be made available through an airdrop for participants of the Glacier airdrop and scavenger mining period, creating a potential for selling pressure as some recipients may liquidate their holdings, while others may choose to retain their tokens.
Analysts are divided on how Midnight will affect the core Cardano network. Unlike other scaling solutions, this sidechain allows developers to build independently, raising questions about its long-term ramifications. Historical precedents for layer-2 and -1 launches have yielded mixed outcomes, making it logical to approach Midnight with cautious optimism.
The weekly chart illustrates a troubling downward trend for ADA, as it has fallen below the pivotal support level of $0.5113, which marked lows earlier this year. Technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, with the token currently trading below both the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages. Furthermore, the Percentage Price Oscillator has dipped under the zero line, indicating a lack of momentum.
However, there are glimmers of hope for ADA holders. Analysts have identified an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern developing, with the neckline positioned around $0.45. Should the price manage to break above this resistance, it could set the stage for targets at $0.49 and $0.52.
Currently, ADA is striving toward a robust resistance zone between $0.475 and $0.485, an area that has repeatedly rejected price advances. A successful breakout here would signify a potential shift in market dynamics. Notably, crypto analyst Crypto Yoda has remarked on ADA’s resilience, highlighting its adherence to the ascending trendline with a series of higher lows – an encouraging signal of a potential recovery.
If ADA cannot break this critical resistance, the price may fall to the next support level at $0.2760, corresponding to the lowest point hit in August 2024, representing a further decline of about 34% from current prices. Long-term forecasts suggest that ADA might be forming a multi-year falling wedge pattern, with analysts projecting recovery targets ranging from $0.80 to $1.30 in 2026 if this pattern realizes itself. Higher projections even suggest a return towards the previous all-time high near $3.09.
As the Midnight mainnet launch approaches, the direction of ADA’s price movement remains uncertain. With the token positioned between a rising trendline support and formidable overhead resistance, the coming days could prove pivotal in shaping Cardano’s trajectory in the volatile crypto market.
