TMC Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC), a prominent player within the metals and critical-minerals sector, witnessed a notable decline of 10.5% on Friday, December 26, amid a holiday-thin trading session that heightened volatility. The company’s share price settled at $6.82 after fluctuating between $6.61 and $7.68 throughout the day, with indications of a slight recovery to around $6.90 in after-hours trading. The trading volume for TMC soared to 11.5 million shares, a stark contrast to usual year-end levels.
As the markets remain closed over the weekend, investors are directed toward Monday for potential catalysts, particularly looking at developments related to regulatory matters regarding deep-sea mining and insights from analysts.
Holiday Trading Exacerbates Swings
The selloff seen on Friday was not triggered by any single operational announcement; instead, it revealed the market’s fragility amid low liquidity and seasonal trading conditions. Analysts pointed out that periods of low volume can magnify price movements, especially in high-volatility stocks like TMC. Earlier in the week, TMC had closed at $7.62 on Wednesday, reflecting investor anticipation regarding perceived advancements in deep-sea mining reviews, only to relinquish these gains come Friday.
One market strategist noted, “The two-step of pop on narrative and drop on positioning is not unusual for TMC,” explaining how investors often engage with the stock as an event-driven trade rather than a long-term investment.
Regulatory Timeline in Focus
The U.S. regulatory framework for deep-sea mining stands out as a vital near-term catalyst for TMC. NOAA’s public comment period, which spans from December 23, 2025, to February 23, 2026, is expected to drive significant attention from investors. Virtual hearings are scheduled for January 27–28, 2026, with registration closing on January 21. This timeline establishes a series of milestones that could lead to market reactions, both bullish and bearish, depending on the outcomes and surrounding media coverage.
Analysts See Upside, But Risks Remain
Despite the recent downturn, Wall Street analysts express a cautious optimism regarding TMC. MarketBeat reports a 12-month average price target of $7.42, suggesting an upside of approximately 8.75% from current pricing, while TipRanks lists an average target of $8.33, categorizing the stock as a “Strong Buy.” However, the disparity in target ranges—from $3.75 to $11—highlight TMC’s vulnerability to regulatory approvals, fluctuations in commodity cycles, and funding conditions.
Investors should be aware that TMC is classified as a “path-dependent” stock: its price movements are expected to closely follow developments in permits, technology execution, and overall macroeconomic trends.
Options, Shorts, and Macro Drivers
The trading dynamics surrounding TMC are further exacerbated by high short interest, increased options activity, and its pre-revenue standing. As of mid-December, approximately 9.44% of TMC’s float was sold short, reflecting 2.9 days needed to cover these positions. This situation, coupled with year-end trading dynamics and macroeconomic volatility, suggests that TMC is susceptible to abrupt price changes.
The broader metals market provides both advantages and cautionary notes. While copper prices have recently soared to historic highs, experts warn of looming demand weaknesses in China during 2026. TMC, attached more to future metal supply than current production realities, resides at the confluence of these challenges.
