Gold prices experienced a significant surge on Monday, climbing over 2% after U.S. military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during a remarkable raid in Caracas. This operation marks the most direct U.S. intervention in Venezuela in decades, raising eyebrows and concerns over the geopolitical ramifications.
The gold market reacted quickly to the unfolding events, with spot gold trading up 2.4% at $4,432.12 per ounce during European trading hours, while U.S. gold futures for March delivery increased 2.7% to reach $4,444.30. Investors turned to gold as a safe haven asset amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty, with silver also making significant gains, skyrocketing nearly 5% in response to the crisis.
This spike in gold prices is reflective of a broader trend; the precious metal had already demonstrated strong growth, surging over 60% in 2025, hitting a record high of $4,549.71 per ounce before an expected profit-taking retraction pulled prices lower.
As per U.S. officials, Maduro’s capture involves longstanding criminal charges against him, and he has since been transported to the United States. President Donald Trump characterized the operation as a “decisive step” against what he deemed a criminal regime, stating that the U.S. plans to ensure a “safe and orderly transition” in Venezuela.
Consequences for Venezuela and Global Markets
Trump further emphasized that the U.S. intends to “run” Venezuela following Maduro’s removal, asserting the need for “total access” to the country, including its vast oil reserves. Venezuela is notable for having the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but years of sanctions and a lack of investment have drastically curtailed its oil production capacity.
The current crisis brings along considerable uncertainty regarding Venezuela’s crude supply, prompting fears in energy markets and concerns over regional stability in Latin America. Analysts highlight that while the short-term economic implications may be limited, the geopolitical consequences could significantly elevate risk premiums across some regional assets.
Market observers like Thomas Mathews, Head of Markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, noted that geopolitical turmoil could keep investors wary and extend fluctuations in asset values. Similarly, Christopher Wong, an analyst at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp in Singapore, emphasized that the developments indicate a possible quick resolution rather than a prolonged military engagement.
Despite the unfolding chaos, gold’s momentum remains robust. The metal’s price rally is supported by a surge in central bank buying and substantial inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Additionally, three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have bolstered precious metals, which typically do not yield interest.
Institutional forecasts from Goldman Sachs Group suggest that gold could potentially climb to $4,900 per ounce this year, driven by expectations of further Federal Reserve loosening measures alongside a change in the central bank’s leadership under President Trump.
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concerns about long-term risks posed by escalating federal debt, highlighting that fiscal factors may compel the central bank to maintain lower interest rates to manage servicing costs effectively.
As the situation in Venezuela continues to unfold, the gold market remains a focal point for investors cautious of the volatility in geopolitical developments, potentially steering more funds toward this traditionally safe asset amid uncertainty.
