XRP has demonstrated a remarkable resurgence, recently breaking above the $2.12 resistance level on January 5, 2026, with trading volume soaring 47.6% higher than the seven-day average. This critical move not only showcases XRP’s resilience but also pushes its market capitalization to approximately $121.7 billion, signaling strong sustained interest in the token.
The upward trend in XRP’s price comes on the heels of significant inflows into U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs, which recorded a robust $13.59 million in new inflows this week. Notably, this surge in interest appears to be steady and not merely a response to isolated news events, reflecting broader confidence among investors.
Simultaneously, a significant decline in XRP exchange balances to multi-year lows has set the stage for potential supply constraints. As supply decreases on exchanges, the possibility for price rallies increases if buying pressure continues to build.
In an illuminating Twitter update, John Squire pointed out: “$XRP exchange balances are at an 8-year low. Coins are leaving exchanges, not rushing in.” Such a sentiment echoes confidence among the more experienced investors who seem to be positioning themselves strategically amidst the current market dynamics.
Following the breakout to over $2.12, XRP has settled into a consolidation phase between $2.128 and $2.152. The $2.128 level has held firm as short-term support through several tests, reinforcing the breakout’s credibility. Unlike previous instances of false breakouts, where prices fell back below resistance levels, XRP’s current structure presents a different narrative, indicating a stronger foundational shift.
Technical Patterns Echo 2017 Cycle
The current technical landscape for XRP bears striking similarities to its trajectory in 2017, particularly concerning price consolidation patterns and subsequent rallies. Analysts have noted that XRP Ledger transaction counts have rebounded towards 1 million daily transactions, highlighting a surge in network activity that aligns with recent price escalations.
Specifically, analyst “Steph” has highlighted parallels between today’s price movements and those from 2017, emphasizing that XRP followed a pattern of prolonged consolidation before experiencing a significant upward shift. In 2017, after forming a corrective pattern that included a falling wedge, XRP erupted into a massive rally. The current market structure seems to show similar characteristics, suggesting that a breakout could be on the horizon.
Price Projections Based on Historical Analysis
Analyzing XRP’s historical performance, EGRAG Crypto points to cyclical behavior marked by significant price movements following periods of apparent stagnation. An inverse chart analysis reveals that previous breakpoints have often signaled substantial growth phases rather than declines.
Based on this model, projections indicate that XRP could reach price levels between $24 and $30 over the next six to eighteen months, with analysts assigning a 60-65% probability to this scenario. Such estimations underscore the potential for dramatic returns reminiscent of past cycles.
Current Market Structure and Outlook
As for immediate resistance, XRP is eyeing the $2.15-$2.16 range. Clearing this threshold could lead to a swift move towards the $2.20 mark. However, should the $2.128 support level falter, the price may risk retreating to the lower boundary near $2.06. Yet, as long as the breakout structure remains intact, market participants remain optimistic.
Despite some tapering in volume following the initial surge past $2.12, the market appears poised for further developments, either through increased participation or more catalytic news. As of now, XRP has gained 2.04%, outperforming broader crypto markets by approximately 180 basis points. A stable consolidation band between $2.128 and $2.152 remains in play while the market digests the implications of this breakout.
