In a striking forecast, the asset management firm VanEck has projected that Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, could reach a staggering price of $2.9 million by the year 2050. This bold claim stems from a calculated assumption that Bitcoin will capture an increasing share of international and domestic trade, establishing itself as a vital component of the global economy.
According to VanEck, which manages approximately $161 billion in assets, this ambitious price target is based on a compound annual growth rate of 15%. This figure represents their base case scenario, indicating a confident outlook on Bitcoin’s future trajectory as a digital asset.
The report, delivered by VanEck’s digital assets research team, leads from the insights of Matthew Sigel, who heads the division, and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush. They forecast that Bitcoin could account for 5-10% of international trade and 5% of domestic transactions by 2050—an assertion that suggests a significant leap in adoption for the cryptocurrency.
Several factors underpin this optimistic projection. Beyond the broader trends in cryptocurrency adoption, VanEck anticipates that expanding global liquidity, coupled with the ongoing debasement of traditional currencies, will propel Bitcoin prices to unprecedented levels. Analysts have positioned Bitcoin not merely as a speculative investment but as a long-term hedge against adverse economic phenomena, including inflation.
Implications of Central Bank Adoption
In addition to trade settlement prospects, the VanEck forecast includes expectations that central banks might hold about 2.5% of their portfolios in Bitcoin. This theoretical structure of institutional adoption is poised to further characterise the cryptocurrency’s impact within financial markets. At the $2.9 million forecasted price, Bitcoin would constitute roughly 1.66% of global financial assets, reflecting a substantial influence within the financial ecosystem.
As part of their outlook, VanEck has also presented alternative scenarios for Bitcoin’s future. In a bear case, Bitcoin could stagnate, achieving only $130,000 by 2050, assuming a modest 2% growth rate. Conversely, the firm envisions a bull case where Bitcoin could escalate to an astonishing $52.4 million, driven by a robust 20% growth rate and expansive adoption.
Current Usage in Trade Settlements
Currently, Bitcoin plays a role in some international trade activities, particularly in countries facing sanctions such as Venezuela and Iran. However, major developed economies, including the G7 nations, remain cautious, reflecting limited adoption for trade settlement among established currencies. According to SWIFT data from September 2025, the US dollar leads international trade, dominating with 47.8% share, followed closely by the euro at 22.8% and the British pound at 7.4%.
VanEck’s analysts have drawn a distinction between Bitcoin’s tactical uses in some financial transactions and its potential long-term value, which they attribute to its evolving relationship with the challenges posed by sovereign debt systems.
This forecast spans a substantial timeframe of 25 years, culminating in 2050, providing a sweeping view into the transformative potential of Bitcoin as a significant player in global finance. The projections were made public on January 8, 2026, marking an important discussion point in the crypto community regarding Bitcoin’s future as an investment and transactional medium.
