Solana (SOL) is currently trading at approximately $85 as of mid-February 2026, positioned precariously under the weight of increased short positions, dwindling social engagement, and a cautious outlook from market analysts.
Despite the ongoing price correction, on-chain insights reveal a silver lining: wallet growth has surged consistently over the last five months. This trend indicates that new users are joining the network even amid declining prices, suggesting a potential accumulation phase as investors quietly build their positions.
This type of behavior during a downturn often points to the groundwork for a future bullish sentiment. However, this optimism coexists with a substantial rise in short positions in Solana, as traders evidently capitalize on the prevailing bearish trends. A crowded short market can sometimes trigger a short squeeze—a phenomenon where a rapid price increase forces short sellers to cover their positions, potentially leading to an explosive bullish turnaround.
Meanwhile, Solana’s social dominance has seen a decline since its peak in September 2025, reflecting low retail interest in discussions surrounding the asset on platforms like Twitter and Reddit. Historically, such diminished social activity tends to occur closer to price bottoms rather than peaks. This current dynamic of rising wallet addresses combined with crowded shorts and subdued social media chatter creates a peculiar market landscape.
Analyst Issues Cautionary Forecast
Renowned crypto analyst Crypto Patel—who accurately predicted the downturn near $250—has reiterated a cautionary outlook for SOL, revealing his projections for further price declines. After advising traders to exit their positions between $200 and $250, leading to a staggering 77% drop from a high of $295, Patel points to current testing at the $85 Fib level. Should this support falter, he forecasts potential lows ranging between $30 and $50.
Patel discusses the price dynamics in detail on social media, emphasizing the weaknesses displayed in Solana’s recent performance. “Currently testing the $85 at the 0.382 Fib level. If this breaks, expecting $50-$30,” he remarked, shedding light on the frail nature of the current support.
Furthermore, Patel labels the anticipated lower price range as a Fair Value Gap area for accumulation, underscoring the historical volume and demand surrounding it. He draws attention to Solana’s remarkable 3,699% surge in 2024 before its current correction, predicting that the ongoing downturn could echo past cycles, with a potential total correction reaching upwards of 89.44% by mid-2026.
Despite these bearish indicators, Patel remains optimistic about Solana’s long-term trajectory. He projects that after the successful navigation of this corrective phase, SOL could rebound dramatically to a range between $500 and $1,000, aiming for an even more ambitious target of $9,270 by late 2029.
As of February 20, 2026, the pivotal support at $85 is being closely monitored by traders and analysts alike. Whether SOL can hold this level could serve as a major indicator of its near-term direction and overall market health.
