New research indicates that Bitcoin is currently facing a substantial discount of approximately 20% stemming from the ever-looming threat of Quantum Computing. This discount is projected to escalate as the technology evolves, raising significant concerns for the cryptocurrency’s long-term value if measures are not taken to secure the network.
Bitcoin’s Quantum Dilemma: A 60% Discount on the Horizon
Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, has released a detailed analysis on how the Quantum Computing risk poses a critical threat to Bitcoin’s fair value. Quantum Computing, a revolutionary technology still in its infancy, has the theoretical potential to compromise the cryptographic security underpinning Bitcoin—namely, the ability to break into vulnerable wallets.
Edwards has referred to an event where the quantum threat reaches a critical point as “Q-Day,” a term signifying the moment Quantum Computing could feasibly infiltrate Bitcoin’s defenses. He warns that, should such a hack occur, it would fundamentally undermine Bitcoin’s core principles of security and trust.
“Trust the code” and “hard money” value propositions would be crippled overnight, as up to 30% of all Bitcoin supply (the coins with exposed public keys) could be stolen and liquidated.
As of now, the exact timeline for when Quantum Computing will advance to a level capable of breaching Bitcoin’s security remains speculative. However, discussions regarding this pressing issue have gained momentum within the cryptocurrency community.
Edwards, known for being a vigorous advocate on this topic, argues that prudent market participants must begin to incorporate a “Quantum Discount Factor” into Bitcoin’s valuation. This factor reflects the urgency of upgrading Bitcoin’s security in response to the Quantum threat.
The analysis introduces a metric whereby the number of years until the necessary upgrades are implemented is deducted from the cumulative probability of Q-Day occurring in each subsequent year. Edwards sourced estimates from several experts to gauge the likelihood of Q-Day.
The data compiled reveals alarming predictions: there is a projected 60% chance that Q-Day could materialize by 2030 and an 80% likelihood by 2031, suggesting that a significant portion of the crypto market anticipates its occurrence before 2035.
In assessing the timeline for Bitcoin’s security upgrade, Edwards posits an average duration of two years. He notes that, while an optimistic scenario could see advancements completed in just one year, it is more reasonable to expect this process to take closer to three years.
By mapping out these projections, Edwards has effectively laid out the Quantum Discount Factor implications for Bitcoin. According to the research, this discount factor is currently at 20% for 2026, meaning Bitcoin’s fair value should be adjusted accordingly to reflect this emerging risk.
If proactive steps are not taken to shield the network against potential threats, the discount could soar to nearly 40% by 2027, reaching an approximately 60% decrease by 2028, and escalating further to 75% by 2029.
Current Bitcoin Market Status
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700, experiencing a 2% decline in the past week, amidst ongoing market fluctuations and increasing scrutiny regarding its security.
