Bitcoin has seen a notable decline, dropping roughly 3% to around $68,507 on Friday, marking a 2.7% decrease for the week. This downturn comes as uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran and a looming $14 billion Bitcoin options expiry leaves traders uneasy.
This drop continues a consistent trend for Bitcoin, now cascading for five weeks straight. The recent extension of President Trump’s Iran ceasefire deadline by ten days momentarily buoyed the market before the Pentagon reports of potential troop increases in the Middle East stamped out any fleeting optimism.
The broader crypto market also took a hit, dropping nearly 1%, resulting in a total market capitalization of approximately $2.4 trillion. Other cryptocurrencies followed suit, with Ether plummeting 4.6% to $2,050 and Solana skidding 5.3% to $85.93. XRP fell by 2.8% to $1.36, marking a weekly decline of 6.5%. Yet, amidst this turbulence, Tron managed a slight gain, inching up by 1.2% on the day.
$14 Billion Options Expiry Looms Large
A staggering $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options is set to expire on Friday on the Deribit exchange, with analysts indicating a maximum pain point around the $75,000 mark—the price at which the highest number of options is likely to expire worthless. Following the expiry, experts predict a decrease in near-term hedging activity, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to even greater price swings correlated with global events.
Despite the turmoil, Bitcoin has struggled to regain ground above $75,000 since the onset of geopolitical tensions nearly a month ago. Currently, it lies around 50% lower than its peak of approximately $126,000 reached in late 2025.
As sentiment turns sour, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects this downturn, registering a score of just 13, categorizing the market in ‘extreme fear’ territory.
Accumulation by Large Holders
While many investors may be exercising caution, large Bitcoin holders—often referred to as whales and sharks—showed resilience, accumulating a total of 61,568 BTC over the past month. This represents an increase of 0.45%, according to data from on-chain analytics provider Santiment. Notably, wallets holding under 0.01 BTC also saw growth, adding 213 BTC in the same timeframe.
“Large holders are quietly stacking during consolidation periods in anticipation of a breakout,” remarked Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research. He raised a cautionary note that a retail-driven rush into the market could lead to a pause or sell-off before the next accumulation phase begins.
Amidst the price declines, Bitcoin ETFs have impressively managed to attract $2.5 billion in net inflows over the last month, highlighting continued institutional interest despite the fluctuations. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has performed particularly well, ranking in the top 2% of all ETFs in terms of year-to-date inflows.
The current landscape is shaped by large investors’ preferences, favoring Bitcoin and Ether while steering clear of the broader altcoin market. Analysts will be closely monitoring developments as the critical April deadline for the Iran ceasefire approaches, aware that significant shifts in the geopolitical tableau could further impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.
