Bitcoin is in an uncomfortable spot, and this time the warning is coming from a cycle signal that has shown up at some of the market’s most decisive turning points. The leading cryptocurrency has crossed a technical threshold in the Gaussian weekly uptrend that has appeared at the same stage of every prior market cycle, and according to one closely followed analyst, it may be pointing toward both a final dip to the bottom and the last discounted entry before the next bull run.
The Gaussian Channel Flip That Matters
In a technical update posted on X, ChartNerd pointed out that Bitcoin has flipped from its green Gaussian weekly uptrend into a red bearish channel, a transition he asserts has always opened the final stretch of every prior Bitcoin bear market. According to the chart, this pattern follows a familiar sequence consisting of a strong green expansion phase, a transition highlighted as a trend flip, and then a red bearish channel that leads into the final sweep.
Examining the multi-year logarithmic Bitcoin weekly timeframe chart, the pattern is visible across the 2014/2015 cycle, the 2018/2019 bottom, and the 2022 cycle low. The current trend flip mirrors those previous transitions, indicating that Bitcoin once again is at a juncture where the trend has always shifted into bearish territory.
ChartNerd notes that this signal has consistently appeared right before the last major downside move in past bear markets. Thus, the analyst refrains from interpreting the signal as the inception of a prolonged collapse. Instead, it could be perceived as a late-stage development, suggesting that the Bitcoin price is nearing a bottom.
The Path To The Bottom
Currently, Bitcoin is down by about 47% from its October 2025 peak price of $126,080. While there remains a possibility of further downside from this point, most of the structural damage to price has already occurred. ChartNerd’s current assessment places the projected final low somewhere in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, targeting a sweep range between $40,000 and $50,000.
The Gaussian Channel on the price chart indicates the Bitcoin price is on a path to test the channel’s red baseline at $66,895 within the 27-day timeframe, with the lower red support at $44,463. Historical cycles demonstrated a brief dip to or below that red support line, signifying that Bitcoin may still encounter another spell of downside volatility to reach this range before any reversal occurs.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
