In a recent discussion, cryptocurrency expert Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital, elaborated on the trending four-year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC). He asserts that the current downturn is simply an iteration of this cycle, not a break in pattern, predicting a price recovery by Q4 2026.
Scaramucci shared his insights on ‘The Wolf of All Streets’ podcast hosted by Scott Melker, where he attributed the recent selloff to profit-taking around the $100,000 mark. He noted that long-term Bitcoin holders viewed this psychological threshold as a crucial exit point, which led to significant selling pressure even amidst fresh institutional investments.
After peaking at approximately $126,000, Bitcoin tumbled down to $60,000, shattering prior expectations of a surge towards $150,000 in 2025. These ambitions were previously bolstered by optimistic narratives surrounding a pro-cryptocurrency regulatory shift in the U.S. under Donald Trump. However, Scaramucci cautioned that markets often move contrary to prevailing investor sentiment.
Reflecting on early 2023, Scaramucci cited that Bitcoin’s revival initiated during a period marked by investor indifference, following the notorious collapse of the FTX exchange in late 2022. He emphasized the organic nature of Bitcoin’s resurgence amidst bleak market sentiments:
“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again.”
Exploring the dynamics of institutional investment, Scaramucci acknowledged that while Bitcoin ETFs and inflows have tempered price volatility, they haven’t disrupted the inherent cyclical nature of the asset. He characterized the current cycle not as extreme but as a ‘garden variety’ downturn. Notably, he pointed out that the recent uptick in inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States approximated $2 billion over the past four weeks, marking the longest streak of net inflows in 2026.
On a broader market scale, Bitcoin’s performance appears closely tied to movements in the S&P 500. Recently, the S&P 500 faced a 1.3% decline, dipping below its 200-day moving average—an essential barometer for long-term trends in equities. This correlation raises concerns among analysts who suggest that Bitcoin might witness an additional 50% drop if it continues to track the performance of the stock market closely.
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, Bitcoin slipped below $69,000, further pressuring the cryptocurrency as risk assets face ongoing volatilities. Despite the current market fluctuations, Scaramucci advises a patient outlook, predicting choppy price action throughout 2026 before a new bull run potentially emerges in the latter part of the year.
Investors will undoubtedly watch these developments keenly, as the interplay between institutional investments and cyclical patterns shapes the future trajectory of Bitcoin in the coming months.
