Cardano (ADA) is currently trading at $0.2449, teetering on a pivotal multi-year support level that has been a key battleground since 2022. This latest dip sees ADA down nearly 6% in recent days, nearly nullifying a recovery that had briefly lifted market sentiments earlier this week.
The overarching market trend has exhibited a sideways movement since February. With bears dominating this week’s price action, ADA finds itself drawn back towards the lower spectrum of its trading range.
At the moment, ADA resides beneath both its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a lack of momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, indicating weak upside potential, while the MACD has retraced below its signal line, further underscoring the absence of significant buying pressure.
This week has also seen Futures Open Interest decline to $402.94 million, steadily falling since mid-March. This drop in open interest illuminates a reduced number of active market participants, fostering a cautious near-term outlook for traders.
Current data from CoinGlass indicates a long-to-short ratio of just 0.83, marking the lowest reading in over a month. This statistic reflects a bearish sentiment among traders, with more positioning for a potential price decline than an upward movement. Funding rates have turned negative, currently at -0.0015%, which indicates that short traders are compensating long positions, further affirming the dominance of bearish sentiment in the futures market.
Whales On the Move
Amid these bearish undertones, on-chain data reveals an intriguing development: whales—those holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and others with 10 million to 100 million ADA—have accumulated a substantial 270 million tokens from Wednesday to Friday.
In contrast, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA saw about 20 million tokens leave their portfolios during the same time frame, suggesting that these smaller holders were potentially capitulating as larger entities seized the opportunity to buy.
Notably, CoinGlass data shows a significant buy wall forming near the $0.24 mark, with the whale cohort executing $31 million in net long positions on Binance and OKX perpetual markets. However, spot volumes remain low, which may imply that larger buyers are waiting for a clearer sign of a reversal before making more aggressive moves.
Network Activity Remains Low
Throughout March, Cardano’s network activity has shown a marked decline, with daily active users remaining below 900 since mid-December—far below the tens of thousands typically seen during more robust periods.
On a brighter note, the number of Cardano holders has slightly increased, rising from 4.3 million to 4.44 million, which may reflect an accumulation phase at lower price points.
Critical Price Levels Ahead
From a technical viewpoint, $0.24 stands as the immediate support level to monitor. A daily close below this threshold could pave the way for a decline towards $0.23–$0.22. Conversely, resistance is found at $0.27, followed by a more formidable barrier around $0.30.
Analyst Ali Charts has emphasized the importance of the $0.245 support level, noting that it mirrors ADA’s current trading position. All eyes will be on this price point as the market dynamics continue to unfold.
