TLDR
- ASML reported Q1 net profit of €2.76 billion on revenue of €8.77 billion, beating analyst estimates
- 2026 revenue guidance raised to €36–€40 billion, up from €34–€39 billion
- CEO says chip demand is outpacing supply, with customers accelerating expansion plans
- ASML plans to ship 60 low-NA EUV tools in 2026, 25% more than in 2025
- China exposure remains a risk, with a US congressional bill threatening to restrict equipment sales
ASML has announced a very successful first quarter for 2026, revealing strong growth that has led to an upward revision of its revenue outlook for the year. This growth is primarily driven by the surging demand for chipmaking equipment, heavily influenced by the burgeoning AI sector.
For the first quarter, ASML reported a net profit of €2.76 billion, with total revenue reaching €8.77 billion. These figures significantly exceeded analyst expectations, which had projected a profit of €2.55 billion on revenues of €8.63 billion, according to FactSet.
The company’s new projections for 2026 are equally impressive, with guidance now indicating sales between €36 billion and €40 billion, a notable increase from its previous forecast of €34 billion to €39 billion. This adjustment reflects a mid-point increase of about 4%.
CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that demand is currently outstripping supply, stating, “Our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their clients.”
ASML harnesses a unique position in the market, maintaining an effective monopoly over extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools, which are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips. These sophisticated machines come with a hefty price tag, often reaching up to $400 million each.
Shipping More Tools in 2026
Alongside its optimistic earnings, CFO Roger Dassen indicated that ASML plans to ship 60 low-NA EUV tools this year, marking a 25% increase compared to 2025. Looking toward the future, he stated that the company expects to amplify shipments to 80 units in 2027.
Notably, recent announcements from major players in chip manufacturing, such as TSMC’s substantial investments in production capacity, have positively influenced market sentiment surrounding ASML. Other companies, including Samsung and SK Hynix, are also ramping up their investments in memory chip production, contributing to the overall industry optimism.
ASML has experienced a remarkable stock rise of approximately 40% this year, with its American depositary receipts climbing 0.7% in after-hours trading on Tuesday.
Despite these positive results, ASML has chosen to discontinue the disclosure of its quarterly order numbers, a move that may alter how investors gauge the company’s momentum.
China Exposure Still a Concern
However, ASML faces potential challenges stemming from its exposure to the Chinese market. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers has introduced the MATCH Act, a bill aimed at intensifying restrictions on semiconductor equipment sales to China, which could impact ASML significantly.
Currently, ASML estimates that 20% of its 2026 sales will derive from the Chinese market. Interestingly, a similar forecast was made for 2025, where the company later reported that approximately one-third of its revenue came from China.
Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon has suggested that the new revenue guidance might be partly attributed to increased activity within immersion lithography, as companies like ASML anticipate accelerated purchases by Chinese clients ahead of possible restrictions.
CFO Dassen noted that the new guidance has taken into account “potential outcomes of export control discussions that are currently ongoing.” Despite the earnings beat, ASML’s stock showed a slight dip in pre-market trading on Wednesday, pointing to the caution that still exists in the markets.
