In a market where Bitcoin’s recent hold above $80,000 has sparked some optimism, one analyst is cautioning that the worst may not yet be over. The monthly chart presents a somber picture, suggesting Bitcoin might have further declines ahead before establishing a bottom.
The analyst’s insights, shared on X, highlight a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s historical price movements. According to their analysis, Bitcoin has never solidified a bear market bottom without first printing nine consecutive red monthly candles. This observation raises concerns about the current trajectory of the cryptocurrency.
Understanding the Pattern
This significant candlestick pattern was first noted in the 2018 bear market. Following its peak in January 2018, Bitcoin entered a prolonged downtrend, culminating in nine consecutive monthly red candles before finding a bottom near $3,200 in December of that year. A similar sequence unfolded during the 2022 cycle, where Bitcoin closed nine straight red monthly candles following the November 2021 all-time high, eventually bottoming around $15,500—representing a staggering decline of approximately 77%.
Fast forward to the current market, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, but the subsequent monthly candle closed in red. This bearish trend continued through February, lending credence to the analyst’s theory. However, the situation has started to shift, with Bitcoin recording green monthly closes in March and April, and May also showing potential for another green candle—though it’s still too early to determine the overall trend.
Implications for Investors
The analyst’s perspective serves as a cautionary note against prematurely declaring the current bounce above $80,000 as the onset of a new bull phase. As Bitcoin continues to navigate its recovery, it will need to secure weekly closes above critical levels before any bullish claims can be substantiated. After all, this isn’t just speculation; it’s a theory that has held true in the past.
This sentiment resonates with the broader market atmosphere. While Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $80,000 mark, the recovery has not been robust enough to eliminate prevailing caution among investors. Other technical analyses echo the notion that Bitcoin bear markets tend to unfold over a year before a sustainable bottom is reached.
Given this context, the current corrective price action might stretch further into 2026 before Bitcoin discovers a more solid long-term floor. Investors would be wise to remain vigilant and prepared for potential turbulence ahead as the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve.
