XRP is witnessing a remarkable trend as whale wallets accumulate tokens at levels not seen since 2018. According to on-chain data from Santiment, wallets that hold at least 10 million XRP have amassed an astonishing 45.83 billion tokens, equating to approximately 68.5% of the total circulating supply. This accumulation marks the highest level since May 2018, raising questions about the underlying price dynamics of the cryptocurrency.
As of now, the total whale-held supply is valued at over $68.5 billion. In stark contrast, U.S. spot XRP ETFs are holding just $1.25 billion in net assets, with asset flows remaining flat since early 2026. This discrepancy between whale accumulation and ETF activity suggests that while large holders are confident in XRP’s future, institutional interest may be waning.
Throughout the first half of 2026, XRP has fluctuated within a tight range of $1.30 to $1.60. Currently, the token is trading around $1.445, reflecting a slight decline of 1.96% over the past 24 hours. Analysts note that options markets on Deribit are pricing merely a 2% chance of XRP surpassing the $2 mark by the end of May, indicating a lack of bullish sentiment in the short term.
Interestingly, recent spikes in network activity suggest a growing interest among retail investors. When XRP briefly peaked at $1.54, the number of active addresses surged to 48,453, the highest figure since March, while new addresses reached 3,317, a significant uptick since mid-March. This surge can be attributed to price-driven fear of missing out (FOMO) among traders, although increased on-chain usage is generally viewed as a positive indicator for long-term price prospects.
Flat ETF Flows Signal Caution
The trend of whale accumulation intensified in late 2025, coinciding with the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November. However, this enthusiasm has not sustained, as ETF inflows have stagnated leading into 2026. Data from SoSo Value indicates that whale on-chain demand has remained relatively unchanged, hovering around 68% of the supply for several months. Whale Insider recently reported that ETF clients had added $10.87 million worth of XRP, bringing the total ETF-held net assets to $1.18 billion.
Despite these developments, XRP continues to trade in a confined range, with significant support observed between $1.40 and $1.50. Technical analysts have identified a long-term cup-and-handle pattern on the XRP chart that spans nearly eight years. If confirmed, Fibonacci extension modeling suggests a potential breakout target above $8, although such a breakout has yet to materialize.
Short-term, XRP is showing resilience, maintaining its position above the EMA50 on the daily timeframe while testing resistance near $1.50. One analyst noted a shift from a descending channel to a rising broadening wedge structure, which could indicate a bullish reversal if key levels are breached.
Traders are closely monitoring critical price levels, including support around $0.89, mid-range accumulation between $1.40 and $1.50, and resistance at $1.60 to $1.70. With options traders on Deribit pricing in just a 2% probability of XRP crossing $2 by the end of May, the market appears to be cautious in its outlook.
As XRP remains a focal point of interest, the juxtaposition of whale accumulation and stagnant price action continues to intrigue market participants. The coming weeks may reveal whether this accumulation will eventually translate into upward momentum or if the market will remain in its current state of indecision.
