As the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff approached, betting on the outcome surged past $16 million on the prediction platform Kalshi, with crypto-backed candidate Ken Paxton showing a commanding 96% chance of defeating incumbent John Cornyn. This significant financial backing reflects the growing influence of cryptocurrency in political races.
Kalshi’s platform also indicated a consistent preference for the Democratic challenger in the House race, with Christian Menefee maintaining strong odds since February.
The Stakes Behind The Spending
On Tuesday, Texas voters participated in two pivotal runoffs—one for the statewide Senate seat and another for the Houston-area 18th congressional district. On the Republican side, Paxton went head-to-head with Cornyn, while the Democratic race saw Menefee facing off against opponent Green, determining who would advance to the November general election. The outcomes are crucial, as they could significantly affect the balance of power in Congress when the new session begins in 2027.
Protect Progress, a PAC aligned with entities like Ripple and Coinbase’s Fairshake PAC, reported a hefty $5 million in advertising supporting Menefee. Additionally, they allocated $2.8 million in ads opposing Green, whom they labeled as “actively hostile” to the interests of digital assets.
Menefee also garnered the endorsement of the Blockchain Leadership Fund, backed by Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs, although this group had yet to report any expenditures as of the latest updates.
An Unusual Advertising Strategy
Interestingly, not all advertising focused on cryptocurrency. One ad funded by Protect Progress criticized Green for his opposition to former President Donald Trump, omitting any mention of crypto or blockchain entirely. A local commentator noted that he witnessed an astonishing 12 television commercials in just one day from the Protect Progress PAC, all funded by individuals who are also major financial backers of Trump.
The Senate race attracted support from another PAC, the Fellowship PAC, which is backed by Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage. They reported a significant $500,000 expenditure backing Paxton, coinciding closely with Trump’s endorsement of Paxton and his criticism of Cornyn for being slow to support him during the presidential campaign.
Prediction markets reflected this political climate, with Kalshi granting Menefee a 91% chance of victory in the Democratic House primary, while rival platform Polymarket displayed similar odds for both candidates in their respective races.
Within the current Republican-led Congress, lawmakers have already enacted cryptocurrency-friendly legislation, such as the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, underscoring the industry’s vested interest in who occupies these influential seats when the next session begins.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
