Bitcoin has recently slipped below the $75,000 mark as selling pressure mounts, reflecting a broader wave of uncertainty that has shaken the confidence established during its recovery from the lows earlier this year. This notable decline has led XWIN Research Japan to highlight a significant development in long-term holder (LTH) data, which poses challenges to one of the most commonly referenced bullish indicators in Bitcoin’s on-chain analysis.
The supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has now reached an unprecedented 15.8 million BTC. Traditionally, this figure is interpreted positively; a growing number of long-term holders suggests that more Bitcoin is being taken off the market, reducing the liquid supply available for immediate sale. Historically, such a tight supply has paved the way for substantial price increases.
However, XWIN Research Japan presents a counterargument that demands attention, as it reinterprets the significance of this record LTH supply. The current supply may not signify heightened confidence among committed holders but instead indicate a worrying trend: a lack of new buyers prepared to absorb the available supply at present price levels. As a result, coins are aging into the long-term holder category by default, rather than through strategic accumulation.
Record Long-Term Holder Supply and Lack of Demand
The analysis from XWIN Research Japan shifts the narrative surrounding the record LTH supply, emphasizing the lack of demand that alters its implications entirely. In a thriving bull market, long-term holders typically sell coins that are then bought up by new investors entering the market, creating a healthy supply rotation that drives prices upward as confidence shifts from early adopters to new capital.
Currently, however, this absorption mechanism appears to be missing. Bitcoin is changing hands less frequently, suggesting that demand has weakened rather than strengthened. Data supports this diagnosis across various holder categories. For instance, the number of whales holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has stagnated and is trending toward negative year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, holdings by smaller investors—those with 100 to 1,000 BTC—have noticeably declined, reflecting a slowdown in ETF and corporate demand since late 2025.
Moreover, some of the increase in LTH supply stems from older coins held on Coinbase simply aging into this category due to time elapsed, rather than through active purchasing decisions. The XWIN assessment encapsulates weeks of converging signals into a stark conclusion: Bitcoin is currently facing a buyer problem, not a seller problem.
Until ETF inflows recover, whale accumulation resumes, and overall network activity improves, Bitcoin remains in a phase of demand recovery rather than a confirmed bull market. This record LTH supply serves as an indicator of that absence, rather than a solution.
Bitcoin Faces Critical Support Levels Amidst Bearish Sentiment
As Bitcoin trades around $72,600, it has lost the crucial $74,000 to $75,000 support zone, which had previously underpinned the recovery from earlier low points. This breakdown is particularly notable as it pushes Bitcoin below the 50-day moving average while simultaneously testing the confluence of the 100-day moving average and a significant horizontal demand area.
The recent price action reveals a clear rejection from the May high near $82,000, where sellers regained control, preventing a challenge to the declining 200-day moving average around $80,000. Since then, Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, solidifying a short-term bearish trend.
The crucial level to watch now lies between $72,000 and $73,000. This zone previously acted as resistance during March and April before flipping to support during the breakout phase. Markets often revisit former breakout levels, and Bitcoin is currently retracing to this pivotal area. The response at this juncture will likely dictate the next major price movement.
If bulls can defend this zone and reclaim the $75,000 threshold, Bitcoin may attempt another rally toward $78,000 and possibly $82,000. Conversely, failing to hold this support could expose the next significant demand zone near $65,000 to $66,000, where buyers had previously stepped in aggressively following February’s downturn. At present, Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point, with the $72,000 to $73,000 area serving as the boundary between consolidation and a deeper corrective phase.
