XRP is currently trading between $1.03 and $1.04, precariously positioned above the psychologically significant $1.00 level. After slipping below the previous support zone at $1.05, this level has now become a point of resistance, intensifying scrutiny around XRP’s price action.
Recent trading sessions have seen XRP hitting its lowest daily close of 2026, around $1.02, after breaking an ascending support trendline and retesting June’s lows. This has solidified a bearish trend that analysts have been monitoring closely.
ChartNerdTA, a prominent analyst, highlighted the break on July 31, indicating that XRP has faced repeated rejections from both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Multiple attempts to reclaim the resistance zone between $1.16 and $1.24 have failed, leading to expectations that any recovery will be short-lived unless XRP can decisively breach these levels.
On TradingView, another analyst noted a bearish Break of Structure after XRP fell below the $1.0473 swing low. The 21-period EMA is now hovering around $1.0527, while the 55-period EMA is near $1.0669, both acting as overhead resistance. Analysts suggest that a four-hour close above the 55 EMA is essential for flipping the current bearish outlook.
Why $1.00 Is the Line in the Sand
Independent analyst Rocksorgate emphasized that the $1.00 level serves as a critical long-term support zone for XRP, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from its broader multi-year ascent. He noted, “If $1.00 snaps on high volume, the bullish market structure breaks completely.”
The 50-day EMA is positioned at $1.11, clustering with the SuperTrend line, while the 100-day EMA sits at $1.19, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.39—each representing layers of resistance that XRP must navigate to regain bullish momentum.
Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 37–38, and the MACD indicates negative momentum below its signal line. Almost every major moving average, from the 10-period to the 200-period EMA, is generating sell signals, highlighting a bearish sentiment in the market.
Whales Are Buying While Retail Sells
Interestingly, despite the prevailing selling pressure from retail investors, larger wallets are quietly accumulating XRP. Wallets containing between 100 million and 1 billion XRP now account for 11.79% of the circulating supply, a slight increase from the previous day, according to data from Santiment. Additionally, exchange balances are declining, suggesting that larger holders are moving their tokens off exchanges, potentially in anticipation of future price movements.
Crypto Patel, a widely followed technical analyst, made headlines by calling XRP’s 72% drop from its cycle peak in July 2025, when many analysts were bullish. He now identifies a macro accumulation zone between $0.65 and $0.85 and expects further downside of 20% to 40% before any significant recovery, with long-term price targets set at $3, $5, $7, and beyond.
The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 29, indicating a state of Fear in the market, a slight uptick from 25 the previous day. Analysts note that the first support zone rests near $1.026, with stronger support around $0.99. The next liquidity target identified by analysts is approximately $1.015, making the upcoming sessions critical for XRP’s price trajectory.
