Bitcoin has made a remarkable comeback, hitting $65,000 for the first time since August 10. This surge coincides with a rebound in US stock markets, as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased following reassuring statements from President Trump.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz was “open and operating” and that all water mines had been neutralized. This news contributed to a recovery in the S&P 500, which bounced back from a low of 7,696, its lowest point since early August, providing a boost to risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Amidst this market recovery, oil prices remained stable, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipping about 1% to around $84 per barrel. In contrast, US 30-year bond yields climbed to 5.34%, marking their highest level since January 2007. Analysts at BNY Mellon have noted that investors are seeking greater compensation for inflation risk, with increased government borrowing pushing yields higher.
ETF Inflows Indicate Renewed Interest
In a promising sign for the cryptocurrency market, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the strongest single-day performance since May 5. This surge in inflows suggests a resurgence of institutional interest in Bitcoin.
Researchers at VanEck have highlighted that 8 out of 12 indicators in their “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are currently active. Their analysis indicates that Bitcoin may be nearing or possibly in an accumulation phase, as all 12 signals have entered their capitulation zone at various points over the past three months.
Analysts Eye Potential Upside
Trader and analyst Aksel Kibar has identified a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming around the $62,300 level, with a target of $76,000 if this pattern holds. Conversely, should the pattern fail, a downside target of $53,000 looms.
Another analyst, Ted Pillows, shared insights on social media, suggesting that Bitcoin is on the cusp of a breakout. He speculated that a four-hour candle close above $65,000 could propel the cryptocurrency up to $68,000.
Despite the recent surge, Bitcoin’s current price remains approximately 48% below its all-time high of $126,300, achieved in October 2025. The 50-month exponential moving average currently sits at $65,827, acting as a near-term resistance level.
VanEck’s research also indicated that the historical average duration of Bitcoin bear markets from peak to maximum drawdown is around 12.7 months. Bitcoin is now roughly 11 months from its peak in October 2025.
Long-term holders have seen a significant shift, shedding approximately 356,000 BTC over the past month. This has resulted in their share of circulating supply dropping below 60% for the first time in several months, with 11.84 million BTC now held long-term.
