Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently at a pivotal technical juncture, as market participants closely observe its movement within a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart. Currently trading around $0.0835, DOGE has witnessed a notable decline from a mid-August high near $0.10.
Crypto analyst Crypto With Gopal highlighted this falling wedge formation, pinpointing the $0.100 mark as a crucial level and identifying the resistance zone between $0.110 and $0.120 as pivotal for bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout above this wedge could potentially target $0.150, suggesting a significant recovery from current levels.
In addition to the short-term outlook, analyst Trader Tardigrade pointed to a longer-term trend on the monthly chart. He noted that DOGE is forming a rounded bottom alongside a descending trendline structure reminiscent of the patterns observed before two previous parabolic cycles. This setup may indicate a possible “cycle ignition” should the trendline break.
A recent analysis on social media echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the current structure mirrors previous successful patterns, raising hopes for a similar bullish trajectory.
Momentum Weakening
Despite these potential bullish indicators, there are signs of weakening momentum. DOGE has dipped below its 20-day Simple Moving Average, which currently sits at $0.08589. The MACD line has crossed beneath its signal line, coupled with negative histogram bars, indicating that sellers may have the upper hand at this time.
The lower Bollinger Band is positioned near $0.08003, making it a critical support level. A decline below this threshold could invalidate the bullish setup and open the door to further losses.
Derivatives Market Stays Active
In the derivatives market, data from Coinglass reveals that 24-hour trading volume has dropped by 3.10% to approximately $710.71 million. However, open interest has increased by 1.92%, reaching around $1.27 billion. This rise in open interest, despite declining volume, suggests that traders are maintaining leveraged positions while awaiting a decisive breakout or breakdown.
Last month, DOGE hit its lowest price since 2023, trading down to $0.068. Although it has rebounded from that low, it remains significantly below its all-time high of $0.73 reached in 2021.
Dogecoin’s circulating supply currently stands at 155.9 billion coins, with an additional 5 billion coins added annually, contributing to ongoing supply dilution pressures. Importantly, there is no cap on the total supply of DOGE.
Only a limited number of businesses—2,328 worldwide—currently accept DOGE as a payment method, as noted in a recent report. This limited adoption raises questions about the coin’s long-term utility and price stability.
