Bitcoin is currently trading near $86,000 after achieving its highest weekly close in eight months. However, the price faced challenges in maintaining momentum as the U.S. trading session commenced.
On Monday, U.S. bond yields surged, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.67%, just shy of a 24-year high. The 10-year yield also climbed back to 5.31%, reflecting ongoing tensions in the bond markets. Trading firm QCP Capital noted that despite a weaker U.S. jobs report, the bond market’s instability, exacerbated by high oil prices, continues to weigh on risk assets.
U.S. stocks opened higher, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.7%. This uptick comes as traders speculate that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes during the upcoming meeting on October 28.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank have indicated that the forthcoming FOMC meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, will be particularly significant given the recent bond sell-off. These minutes are expected to provide insights into the Fed’s perspective on the current tightening cycle.
Analysts See a Path to $93,000
Lacie Zhang, the research lead at Bitget Wallet, has stated that Bitcoin could potentially reach between $90,000 and $93,000, provided that Treasury yields decrease and inflation data indicates a cooling labor market. She emphasized that neither lower rate expectations nor ETF inflows alone would suffice to confirm a breakout.
Zhang identified $87,400 as a crucial level for buyers to surpass on a daily or weekly basis to establish upward momentum. Conversely, she noted $84,000 and $82,000 as immediate support levels should the price experience a downturn.
Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent analyst on social media, has drawn comparisons between the current market setup and previous cycles. He believes that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before entering a consolidation phase, suggesting that the year 2027 may witness new all-time highs.
October rate-hike odds have significantly dropped to approximately 23%, down from 64% just a week prior. Zhang attributed this shift to September payroll growth of only 29,000, which fell short of economists’ expectations of 90,000. Additionally, August’s payroll figures were revised downward, reflecting a slight uptick in unemployment from 4.1% to 4.2%.
ETF Inflows Continue but Resistance Holds
In September, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $2.65 billion, with an additional $134 million during the first two trading sessions of October. Zhang characterized these inflows as supportive, yet they have not proven sufficient to push Bitcoin past its resistance levels.
Furthermore, a report from Coin Bureau highlighted that long-term Bitcoin holders have managed to remain in profit throughout the entire cycle, a trend not seen in any bear market since at least 2015. This development indicates a rising holder profit ratio, suggesting increased confidence among long-term investors.
Despite the positive sentiment, Glassnode’s Weekly Market Pulse has noted a decline in buyer dominance since mid-September, when Bitcoin first returned to $87,000. The report suggested this reflects a “moderation in aggressive upward momentum” rather than a definitive trend reversal.
Zhang cautioned that stronger inflation data, renewed price pressures from oil, or hawkish comments from the Fed could revitalize October rate-hike expectations, potentially pushing Bitcoin back toward the $84,000 level.
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with all voting members in agreement. The latest projections indicated a median year-end rate of 4.1%, an increase from 3.8% in June.
