Nearly a year has passed since Bitcoin experienced one of the most dramatic drops in its history. On October 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency plummeted from approximately $122,000 to $105,000 in mere minutes, wiping out around $19 billion in leveraged positions.
This catastrophic event was triggered shortly after President Trump announced tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to widespread panic and liquidations across crypto markets. As the anniversary of this incident approaches, many are pondering the same question: Have traders actually learned anything, or are we witnessing a repeat of past mistakes?
Market Improvements Since the Crash
Despite the chaos of last year, recent market data suggests some improvements. Currently, Bitcoin and Ether order books are deeper than they were prior to the crash, indicating that increased market maker capital has returned.
For instance, on October 7, about $11.7 million was recorded within 1% of Bitcoin’s price, approximately 75% higher than the figures seen on the day of the crash a year ago. Moreover, Ether’s recovery appears even stronger, with the depth within 0.5% of its price more than doubling since the crash.
Analysts suggest that this growth reflects real capital returning to the market rather than simply low prices inflating numbers. Mark Connors from Risk Dimensions notes that traders now have better tools for tracking risk, enhancing visibility into order books and trader positions. He asserts, “More information means greater certainty, less volatility.”
Lingering Risks in the Market
However, not every segment of the market has rebounded. Altcoin liquidity has been in steady decline since early 2025, with some measures indicating a decrease of about one-third. Additionally, spot trading volume remains sluggish, averaging around $279 billion over the past four weeks—nearly two-thirds lower than the $801 billion traded during the week of the crash.
Leverage, or trading with borrowed funds, has also resurfaced, with traders increasing their borrowed bets leading up to the anniversary. Bitcoin recently slid toward $80,000, resulting in over $1 billion in liquidations in just 24 hours. CryptoQuant’s Estimated Leverage Ratio has climbed, indicating a heightened risk in the market.
Funding rates, which represent the fees paid by traders betting on price increases, are significantly lower than they were last year. Deribit’s funding rate is around 7.1% annualized this week, a stark contrast to the 26.9% before the crash.
Market sentiment also appears unchanged, with the Fear and Greed Index reading 64, indicating a state of “greed” even after recent selloffs. Chris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus advises traders to abstain from leverage and closely monitor funding rates. He also recommends that long-term holders consider moving Bitcoin off exchanges for better custody.
Connors further suggests that the four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings no longer provides the same reliable signals it once did, with economic and political events now playing a more significant role in price fluctuations.
As it stands, Bitcoin is trading around $82,699, down approximately 35% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. Data from Glassnode indicates that the next cluster of leveraged positions sits near $75,000, raising concerns about potential volatility ahead.
