Bitcoin has encountered renewed selling pressure this week, with the Coinbase Premium Index turning negative and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to levels reminiscent of April. This shift indicates a cautious sentiment among U.S. investors, yet it could also suggest a potential price stabilization phase akin to Bitcoin’s earlier market bottom.
Coinbase Premium Turns Negative as BTC Falls Below $104,000
Bitcoin fell below $104,000 on Friday, hitting an intraday low near $103,500. This decline marked a pivotal moment for the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other major exchanges, flipping negative on the hourly chart for the first time in several weeks.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had temporarily found support around $110,000, buoyed by stronger U.S. spot demand. During that period, the Coinbase Premium briefly surged to 0.18, its highest level since March 2024. However, as prices struggled to maintain a foothold above the $110,000 threshold, the momentum for short-term buying weakened.
Despite the negative shift in the hourly premium, analysts noted that the daily figure remains slightly positive, indicating sustained long-term institutional interest from U.S. investors, albeit under pressure.
Rising Sell Volume Adds Pressure to Market Sentiment
The recent downturn was exacerbated by a sharp increase in taker sell volume, which surpassed $4 billion. This spike reflects a surge in market sell orders as traders sought to secure profits or mitigate exposure. The price drop also aligned with Bitcoin’s rejection near the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $112,370, now seen as a crucial resistance level.
Historically, this price zone serves as the average entry cost for newer market participants. A sustained rejection below this level often leads to temporary capitulation among short-term traders. Observers suggest that a failure to recover above $112,000 could push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 range, where liquidity remains substantial. However, this threshold might also provide a potential support zone should buyers return to the market.
RSI Matches April Low, Hinting at Possible Stabilization
Bitcoin’s RSI has fallen to its lowest point since April, reaching a reading of 34. The last time the RSI hit this level, Bitcoin began to form a bottom before entering a slow recovery phase. Technical analysts view this development as a potential indicator that the asset may soon stabilize, provided the broader market does not face significant corrections.
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains a critical support indicator, with Bitcoin having held above this trendline for nearly six months. Previously, the price maintained a similar pattern from October 2024 to March 2025 before undergoing a brief consolidation period. The current structure suggests Bitcoin may test this level again, with the possibility of a temporary dip below it preceding a recovery.
Market Outlook and Short-Term Scenarios
Current market patterns resemble Bitcoin’s March-April bottom structure, where sharp intraday declines cleared accumulated liquidity before a gradual rebound. Analysts continue to assert that as long as Bitcoin remains above $100,000, the broader bullish trend remains intact. A decisive break below that level, however, could lead to extended consolidation.
Should the asset follow its previous recovery pattern, a similar timeline would suggest a potential rebound forming between late November and early December. For the moment, traders are closely monitoring the $100,000–$104,000 range, as it may define the next market phase. The combination of a weakening Coinbase Premium and an oversold RSI underscores that while near-term pressure persists, a recovery phase could be taking shape in the backdrop.
