The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a notable divergence in sentiment as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) continue to face headwinds, while XRP and Solana (SOL) are displaying signs of renewed bullish momentum. Recent options data reveals a shift in trader positioning, indicating that XRP and SOL could be gearing up for a recovery in the months ahead.
XRP and SOL Show Positive Risk Reversals
A key options indicator, the 25-delta risk reversal, is currently revealing bullish signals for both XRP and Solana. This metric compares the costs of call and put options, helping to gauge whether traders are leaning towards bullish or bearish positions. A positive reading indicates a higher demand for calls, which traders typically purchase when they anticipate price increases.
According to data from Amberdata, both XRP and SOL are exhibiting positive risk reversals across all major expiry dates on Deribit, including October 31, November 28, and December 26. This trend suggests that traders are currently paying a premium for call options over puts, reflecting a shift in sentiment following the recent market downturn.
The optimism follows a significant market crash on October 10, which saw XRP tumble from $2.80 to $1.77, though it has since rebounded to $2.33. Similarly, Solana experienced a drop from $220 to $188, where it currently finds itself under pressure. Despite trading below their recent peaks, options traders are betting on a recovery.
Bitcoin and Ether Options Indicate Caution
In contrast to the bullish outlook for XRP and SOL, the same risk reversal data signals a bearish sentiment for Bitcoin and Ether. Traders are still willing to pay a premium for put options, which serve as insurance against further price declines. This put bias persists into the long-dated September 2026 expiry for Bitcoin, suggesting long-term concerns among traders.
For Ether, the sentiment remains negative through December 2025, although some of the later expiries indicate a slight tilt towards bullish expectations. This cautious sentiment may not solely reflect bearish views but could also be influenced by popular trading strategies such as call overwriting, where traders sell calls to generate income while maintaining their positions in the underlying assets.
Deribit, which accounts for over 80% of crypto options trading, offers a reliable perspective on market sentiment. However, it’s crucial to recognize that options tied to XRP and SOL may exhibit higher volatility due to smaller open interest and lower trading volumes compared to Bitcoin and Ether, which could impact the accuracy of the data.
Neutral Positioning in Perpetual Futures
Despite the bullish signals in options trading for XRP and SOL, perpetual futures across the major cryptocurrencies show a more neutral sentiment. Funding rates remain close to zero for Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Solana, indicating that neither long nor short positions are dominating the market.
Data from Velo corroborates this trend, revealing that traders are adopting a cautious stance following the October 10 crash, which wiped out $20 billion in leveraged positions. This event has shaken confidence, leading to more conservative approaches in the futures market.
Perpetual futures allow traders to speculate on cryptocurrency prices without an expiration date, utilizing funding payments to align prices with spot markets. When funding rates increase, it indicates a growing number of traders taking long positions. Conversely, flat rates suggest a lack of strong directional bias.
Altcoins Poised for Recovery Amid Major Market Caution
As Bitcoin and Ether remain ensnared in a cautious phase, XRP and Solana are showcasing early signs of strength. The positive risk reversals in options trading suggest that traders anticipate upward movements for both altcoins in the near future, even as perpetual futures sentiment remains neutral.
This contrasting sentiment between the options and futures markets underscores the varied approaches traders are taking in the wake of recent market turbulence. While the broader market continues to heal, XRP and SOL may be leading the charge toward recovery, as indicated by trader positioning.
