Bitcoin is currently navigating a turbulent stretch as analysts closely monitor the cryptocurrency’s next moves. Following recent fluctuations, predictions suggest that the flagship digital asset may need to dip down to approximately $104,000 before the bull market can truly reignite.
The pivotal 50-week simple moving average (SMA), now resting around $102,500, has proven to be a critical support level throughout the ongoing bull market that commenced in mid-2023. This technical indicator has provided robust support on four separate occasions, and many analysts believe we are on the cusp of another visit to this level.
The market still harbors substantial leverage, with a significant liquidity cluster developing around $104,000 that traders expect to encounter soon. Analyst Sykodelic noted recently, “I know it’s not what any holder wants to hear, but very likely we take that out.” This sentiment reflects a common belief that markets often feel their worst just before a reversal, a pattern that has been observed in previous cycles.
For instance, Bitcoin last touched the 50-week SMA in April 2025, falling to $74,000, and prior to that in August 2024, it hit $49,000. In both instances, bearish sentiment was rampant, yet Bitcoin rebounded strongly after hitting these support levels.
Current Market Dynamics Indicate a Possible Decline
Other analysts share this outlook. Negentropic remarked that we may be witnessing the final flush before a significant recovery. “It seems like the profit-taking this time around is less intensive,” he commented, indicating that the market’s current setup could pave the way for a drop to $102,000.
Key technical indicators, such as the 200-day exponential moving average, have also been identified as crucial support areas throughout this market cycle. Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that while volatility around this level is typical during uncertain times, the overarching trend has remained intact.
$BTC Big area for Bitcoin here.
The Daily 200MA/EMA trend has roughly held during most of this cycle. There has been some chop around it during uncertain times, but in the end, price never lost the trend for more than a month.
Moving average trends like these can be useful to… pic.twitter.com/rRjeAKgJmk
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 22, 2025
Currently, Bitcoin has exhibited relative stability, trading around the $108,000 mark, which has transitioned from a support level to resistance. After a brief spike to $113,000 on Tuesday, Bitcoin retraced to $107,000, consolidating at these resistance levels.
As it stands, Bitcoin is trading below both $109,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. A short-term declining channel appears to be forming, with resistance around $108,800. The price has made attempts to recover above $107,500 but has faced multiple hurdles.
Immediate resistance is noted near $108,800, with the first significant resistance level at $109,500. If Bitcoin manages to close above this point, it could open the door for further gains, potentially testing $111,500 and $112,000.
Conversely, if Bitcoin does not break above $109,500, it risks initiating another downtrend. Immediate support is located around $107,200, with major support at $106,750. A more significant decline could see Bitcoin tumble towards the $105,000 mark, with the primary support resting at $103,500.
As the market awaits its next move, all eyes remain on Bitcoin, with analysts keenly observing these critical levels for signs of a turnaround.
