The cryptocurrency market is on edge as Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow trading range, oscillating between $110,000 and $116,000. Investors eagerly await two significant events that could influence market sentiment—Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and a high-stakes US-China trade summit set for Thursday.
Since its sharp sell-off on October 10, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, rebounding approximately 13%. However, it has struggled to consistently breach the formidable resistance at $116,000. Currently trading around $112,637, bulls face significant hurdles in the quest for upward momentum.
Recent order book data from major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase highlight persistent selling pressure above the $116,000 mark. Large sell orders clustered between $117,000 and $118,000 have thwarted price rallies, creating a frustrating dynamic for bullish traders.
In the past 12 hours, short liquidations reached nearly $50 million as Bitcoin approached this resistance ceiling, indicating that sellers are continually capping price surges before bulls can find their footing.
Market Sentiment Split Between Investors
Interestingly, market behavior is distinctly divided. According to data from Hyblock, larger investors with order sizes ranging from $1 million to $10 million are opting to sell during price hikes, while smaller retail investors—who tend to place orders between $1,000 and $10,000—are buying into the dips, despite facing liquidation risks in futures markets. This dichotomy has initiated a ping-pong-like effect, bouncing between support at $110,000 and resistance at $116,000.
The overall open interest across global exchanges has seen a recovery, rising to $31.48 billion from an October 11 low of $28.11 billion, yet it remains significantly below the $40.39 billion seen during Bitcoin’s previous peak at $124,600.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been encouraging, with a reported $260.23 million net inflow over the last few trading sessions. A particularly robust day on October 21 saw inflows of $477 million shortly after Bitcoin dipped below $108,000. This renewed interest indicates a burgeoning demand from institutional players following recent price corrections.
Analyst Outlook on Bitcoin’s Path Forward
Analysts are echoing the sentiment that for Bitcoin to ignite a more robust bullish trend, it must close above $120,000. Ali Martinez, a noted analyst, suggests that such a move could pave the way toward a potential price target of $143,000, based on historical on-chain pricing models. After crossing this threshold, the next area of resistance is expected to be significantly lighter.
Michael van de Poppe shared a similar view, suggesting that the recent price action is a typical pre-FOMC maneuver. He indicated that holding the $112,000 support could be crucial for a subsequent upward push. Meanwhile, Glassnode’s data indicates that recent buyers have heavily concentrated their positions around $111,000, underscoring a continuing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
Trading activity has surged, with volumes spiking to 22,844 Bitcoin on October 28—174% of the 24-hour average. The price briefly hit a daily high around $116,094 before being pushed back down by sellers.
Upcoming Events Create Caution Among Traders
With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting looming on Wednesday, many investors are trimming their exposure to risk. This pattern of caution is common ahead of such pivotal financial events, particularly in the volatile crypto space.
The US-China trade summit adds yet another layer of uncertainty, with President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to discuss crucial trade matters. Any outcomes from this meeting could influence market dynamics across both equities and cryptocurrencies.
A cluster of leveraged long positions around the $112,000 to $113,000 range may face liquidation risks if the price dips. Buyers have stepped in at $112,500, providing some support. As Bitcoin’s price sits at $112,568—a slight decline from a previous high of $113,973—it remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency can establish itself firmly above the $116,000 resistance level. The trading corridor of $111,000 to $117,000 is likely to persist until a definitive breakout occurs, with any firm movement above $116,000 seeking new targets at $119,000 to $120,000.
