Bitcoin (BTC) has been making headlines as it struggles to maintain the critical $110,000 support level. As month-end approaches, the intensity of market pressures has mounted, leaving Bitcoin’s price structure precarious. Analysts warn that BTC could face a retest of lower demand zones before establishing a stronger footing. With liquidity pockets lingering below current price levels and continued selling efforts near resistance, traders may need to reassess their positions, especially in light of the recent Federal Reserve policy shift.
Yet, amid the uncertainty, there are signs of optimism. Many investors are buoyed by macroeconomic factors that seem to favor risk assets once again. The Fed’s recent 25 basis points rate cut and the announcement that quantitative tightening will finish by December 1 have created expectations for a new liquidity cycle—historically a positive sign for Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
On-chain metrics further illustrate a stable market environment for Bitcoin. Data indicates that the activity among older coins has remained stable over the past month, with long-term holders showing no indications of panic selling, suggesting a firm conviction among seasoned market participants despite the price turbulence. These dynamics underscore a market in transition: cautious, yet strategically positioned for potential upward movement.
Holding Steady: ASOL Reflects Strong Confidence
Insights from top analysts reveal that Bitcoin’s spending behavior among long-term holders has remained notably stable, reflecting strong market conviction. One crucial metric in this assessment is the Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL), which measures the average age of coins being moved on-chain. Notably, even though there were brief spikes to 245 days on October 8 and 209 days on October 21, these were significantly weaker than spikes observed during periods of serious distribution in prior months.
This distinction is essential: earlier spikes often signaled meaningful distribution events preceding price corrections, whereas the recent moderate increases indicate little desire among long-term holders to exit their positions. Currently, the 30-day ASOL moving average hovers around 111 days, a level indicative of healthy consolidation rather than distribution.
Practically, this reveals that experienced holders are exercising patience, showing no urgency to cash out despite prevailing macro uncertainties. Concurrently, incoming liquidity appears to be absorbing supply, leading to a tighter available Bitcoin market, which fosters price stability even amid constrained speculative flows.
In summary, these on-chain conditions suggest a phase of stabilization rather than general exhaustion. As liquidity improves and macroeconomic pressures dissipate, this underlying conviction among long-term holders could pave the way for the next substantial rally, contingent on a notable acceleration in demand. Beneath the surface, the market holds an air of calm, a posture often linked to accumulation phases and future growth rather than broad exhaustion or capitulation.
Current Trading Dynamics: Bitcoin Left in a Tug-of-War
At press time, Bitcoin is trading around $110,100, attempting to rebound after experiencing another harsh rejection from the $117,500 resistance level—this threshold has consistently curtailed upward movements since mid-August. Observations on the 12-hour chart reveal a recurring theme: bullish attempts toward the higher range consistently fade near a cluster of moving averages, with sellers emerging aggressively at resistance, pushing BTC back into its mid-range support territory.
The importance of keeping above the $108,500 to $110,000 demand band cannot be overstated; this area functioned as a pivotal point in late September and early October. A breakdown below this zone could open the door for Bitcoin to revisit the $104,000 to $106,000 region, which saw price action during the October 10 liquidation event.
On the upside, for Bitcoin to break free from its current range, it must reclaim and hold above the 50- and 100-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, particularly above $114,500. Such a breakthrough would generate momentum for another shot at the $117,500 mark, with a confirmed breakout potentially steering the price towards the $120,000 to $123,000 target.
As it stands, Bitcoin remains trapped in this range, balanced between macro optimism and ongoing supply pressure. With volatility tapering again, significant movement is anticipated once the market digests the recent policy shifts and liquidity flows begin to redirect decisively.
