Bitcoin is facing a tough battle to maintain its status above the $100K mark, as bulls struggle to regain momentum amidst a backdrop of fear and uncertainty. Trading near critical support levels, the cryptocurrency’s price action remains tepid, despite strong on-chain fundamentals. Leading analyst Darkfost notes that the market is undergoing a significant evolution, rendering many traditional on-chain indicators less reliable.
Darkfost observes, “With time, we can clearly see that the structure and dynamics of the market are evolving.” Once defined largely by retail behavior and exchange flows, Bitcoin’s current price action is increasingly influenced by institutional players, ETFs, and long-term investors.
Despite the shifting landscape, some metrics retain their significance, particularly Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—an insightful indicator of long-term holder activity. “It’s one of the indicators I follow the most because long-term holders are still driving this market,” Darkfost emphasizes.
Currently, between 75% and 80% of all Bitcoin supply is held by long-term holders, showcasing the robust hands that dominate the market despite its inherent volatility. This consolidation among patient holders may eventually pave the way for the next bullish trend as the short-term fear wanes.
Long-Term Holders Drive Market Dynamics Through Rising CDD
As highlighted by Darkfost, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is an indispensable tool for comprehending Bitcoin’s current market dynamics. This metric offers a clear visualization of long-term holder (LTH) activity and the potential selling pressure they may exert. Essentially, CDD measures how long coins have remained dormant before being transacted, with a resurgence of older coins often indicating distribution activity.
The 30-day moving average of CDD has been steadily rising, recently doubling since early summer. Interestingly, CDD levels had fallen leading up to Bitcoin’s last all-time high, contributing to that price surge; however, the upward trend persists, signifying a growing engagement among long-term holders.
On an annual scale, CDD levels have surpassed those seen during the 2021 cycle and are nearing the figures from 2017—quite possibly marking one of the most active periods for long-term holders in Bitcoin’s history. This activity signals a major transfer of supply among market participants.
Despite the current market challenges, Bitcoin remains above $100,000, a stark contrast to prior cycles. The market today exhibits greater liquidity, resilience, and an institutional influence that hadn’t been seen before. Long-term holders now possess the capability to execute substantial trades without sending prices into a tailspin, demonstrating the maturity and depth that Bitcoin’s market has achieved over time.
Bitcoin Battles to Hold $100K Support
As of now, Bitcoin has settled around $100,767, grappling to maintain stability following a week characterized by aggressive selling pressure. The daily chart indicates that BTC has once again tested the psychologically crucial $100K support, a level that bulls are called upon to defend to avert further bearish momentum.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently positioned below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling that short- and mid-term momentum is swaying decidedly towards the bears. The 200-day moving average, now slightly above $106K, is acting as dynamic resistance—reinforcing the broader corrective phase that initiated in late October.
A successful close above the $103K–$104K range could signal a short-term recovery trajectory toward $108K–$110K. Conversely, a decisive breach below $100K could incite a sharper correction toward $95K, ultimately testing market resilience as sentiment continues to oscillate between fear and cautious optimism.
