Bitcoin has recently dipped below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, igniting fresh concerns across the cryptocurrency landscape. Trading near $97,000, the leading digital asset is grappling with increased selling pressure and diminishing momentum, leading traders and investors to question whether this pullback signals the onset of a bear market or merely a deeper correction in an ongoing cycle.
Analysts are observing that losing this pivotal psychological support may lead to further declines, especially if buyers are unable to defend lower levels. Historical trends indicate once Bitcoin breaks through major round numbers, volatility tends to surge before stabilizing.
Yet, a sense of cautious optimism lingers among some market participants. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that it is premature to declare the arrival of a full-scale bear market. He highlighted that on-chain data, including exchange flows and miner actions, do not yet exhibit the kind of structural weakness typically associated with market tops. Instead, he posits that the market might be transitioning into a prolonged consolidation phase, allowing for volatility to settle before Bitcoin charts its next course.
$94K Becomes the Line in the Sand for Bitcoin’s Bull Case
Ju has pinpointed a crucial threshold at approximately $94,000, which could define Bitcoin’s trajectory moving forward. This level represents the average cost basis for investors who entered the market six to twelve months ago, thus establishing it as an essential psychological and structural support area.
Despite the prevailing fears triggered by Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000, Ju argues that a firm confirmation of a bear cycle awaits a significant breakdown below $94,000. He noted, “Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level,” stressing the importance of exercising patience amid heightened volatility.
He cautioned against overreacting to short-term fluctuations, which can lead to ill-timed decisions during market distress. For the time being, maintaining this $94,000 support could pave the way for a potential recovery, while a decisive breach of this line would signal a likely end to the bull phase.
Bitcoin Drops Below $100K, Testing Long-Term Support Levels
Bitcoin’s weekly chart paints a rather troubling picture as it has traded around $96,900, marking its first significant move below the $100,000 threshold since May—a decline of 7.4% over the past week. The surge in selling volume signals that market participants are prioritizing risk management amid prevailing uncertainty.
A major feature of the chart is Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain, or reclaim, its 50-week moving average, currently positioned near $95,000. Historically, this level has been a vital support during mid-cycle corrections, providing a stabilizing effect ahead of substantial recoveries. Conversely, if the price closes below this moving average on a weekly basis, it could substantially shift market sentiment in favor of bears, possibly leading to a retest of the $88,000-$90,000 region near the 100-week moving average.
Despite the bearish overtones, signs of potential accumulation are materializing. Notably, volume spikes during declines often imply that larger market players are entering to absorb excess selling pressure. If Bitcoin can maintain above $95,000 and regain the $100,000 mark in the near future, it may establish a strong base for recovery. Conversely, a failure to protect this critical level will strengthen the argument that the market is descending into a deeper corrective phase.
