XRP enters December 2025 trading near $2.20 after a challenging November, during which the token experienced a nearly 13% decline. As we step into this critical month, XRP is caught between a burgeoning institutional demand fueled by new ETF products and the existing selling pressure from long-term holders.
December has historically shown varied results for XRP. While past data suggests an average gain of 69.6%, this figure is significantly skewed by the massive 818% surge noted in December 2017. When looking at more recent performances, the average returns were modest, with gains of only 6.94% in 2024 and a mere 1.62% in 2023.
The recent launch of spot XRP ETFs has altered the market dynamics heading into December. With these new financial products attracting approximately $640 million in institutional inflows, the landscape is shifting. Exchange reserves have seen a considerable drop, approximately 29% over the past month, with Binance’s XRP balance reaching a 12-month low of around 2.7 billion tokens.
Industry players like Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, argue that the influx of institutional capital could set December 2025 apart from previous years. He emphasizes that XRP is entering the month with positive momentum driven by ETF trading activity, which has recorded an initial volume of around $59 million, demonstrating a structured interest rather than speculative retail trading.
On-Chain Indicators Reflect Selling Pressure
However, the on-chain metrics present a more complex picture. Recent data indicates that long-term holders are reducing their positions significantly. The 1-2 year cohort saw a drop from 9.72% to 8.516% of the total supply, while the 2-3 year group decreased from 14.80% to 14.251%. This selling behavior poses a challenge for any upward price movement.
These long-term holders control a substantial percentage of the circulating supply, and their selling creates resistance between key price levels of $2.445 and $2.460, where approximately 1.749 billion XRP is concentrated. Youssef cautions that for XRP to gain any traction this December, the demand from institutions must remain robust enough to counter the selling from these larger holders.
Currently, XRP is trading within a tight range of $2.17 and $2.24, indicating indecision among traders. Failed breakout attempts have resulted in liquidation cascades and short-term price pullbacks. Traders are clearly waiting for further signals before committing to their next moves.
Technical Analysis Indicating Potential Breakout
XRP’s current price structure outlines a double-bottom formation, with the token showing resilience from lows of $1.772 in October and again in late November. The token needs to breach the resistance levels at $2.307 and the more critical zone at $2.459 to confirm any bullish momentum. This breakout aligns with cost basis heatmap clusters and represents a significant psychological barrier for traders.
A positive development is the bullish crossover detected on XRP’s weekly Stochastic RSI, which has previously indicated substantial price increases in 2025. In the past, similar signals preceded rallies of 600% and 130%. However, intraday layers show some overbought conditions, suggesting that traders should remain cautious. Analysts note that XRP is experiencing several false breakouts, leading to liquidations in high-leverage positions.
If the flow of institutional funds wanes and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum retract, XRP could follow suit and retest lower levels. Youssef underscores the importance of watching key support at $2.119; a close below this could expose XRP to revisit $1.772.
Despite the challenges, the 29% contraction in exchange supply provides a structural foundation that may bolster medium-term price stability for XRP. The reduced availability of XRP due to ETF inflows could solidify a stronger base compared to earlier in the year. The token is currently navigating short-term volatility while accumulation appears to be taking place beneath the surface.
As December unfolds, the dynamic interplay of institutional demand and long-term selling will be critical in determining XRP’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
