Bitcoin has encountered significant challenges in its quest to reclaim higher price levels, fueling speculation that a deeper bearish phase may be upon us. Trading has been predominantly sideways after several unsuccessful attempts to breach critical resistance areas. This stagnation reflects deteriorating market sentiment, with growing fears and no definitive signs of a recovery in sight.
Recent insights from market analyst Axel Adler reveal a suite of on-chain metrics and indicators that suggest a continuation of bearish conditions in the months ahead. Adler emphasizes diminishing demand, notable selling pressures, and declining liquidity—elements that historically precede extended corrective spells.
While Bitcoin has managed to stay above significant support zones, its ongoing inability to set higher highs or sustain any rallies indicates a cautious and largely defensive stance among buyers.
Wider market conditions portray a similar fragility. Data on derivatives positioning, stablecoin flows, and the behavior of long-term holders all hint at waning conviction. This combination of factors amplifies the bearish narrative and suggests the potential for increased volatility as the market seeks a more stable bottom.
Bearish Sentiments Amplified by MVRV Model
Adler’s analysis brings to light a pivotal structural indicator, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Bull vs. Bear Market model, which starkly indicates prevailing bearish sentiments. He notes that the 30-day to 365-day MVRV spread remains significantly negative and continues to worsen.
This key spread gauges profitability disparities between short-term and long-term holders. A marked underperformance by the short-term cohort typically signifies risk aversion, considerable exhaustion, and a decline in demand.
Historically, a crossover—where the 30-day MVRV exceeds the 365-day metric—signals transitions from bear to bull markets. However, Adler cautions that, given current conditions, such a crossover appears distant. Remaining well below levels necessary for a meaningful reversal, the spread confirms that Bitcoin is still deeply rooted in a bearish phase.
Looking at cycle analogs reinforces this assessment. Adler estimates the next realistic window for a significant crossover may not arrive until the latter half of 2026. This insight implies that any short-term rallies might merely represent counter-trend bounces rather than the initial stages of a robust bull market. Until we see improvement in the MVRV structure, broader market sentiment is poised to remain decidedly bearish.
Struggles of Bitcoin in Regaining Momentum
Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, indicative of a market grappling with indecision and structural weaknesses. Currently hovering near $92,000 following a drop from the $120,000 range, BTC’s recent price candles depict a consolidation pattern. This behavior usually signifies a temporary stabilization rather than a definitive reversal, especially against the bearish backdrop outlined by on-chain and macro indicators.
The 50-day moving average looms above the current price, signaling dynamic resistance and underscoring a firmly bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to trend downwards, creating a compression zone that Bitcoin has yet to challenge. Until it can decisively reclaim these critical levels, any rallies could be stifled by market sellers.
Even with a slight rebound from sub-$90,000 territories, trading activity remains unimpressive compared to the significant selling volume that precipitated the initial breakdown, indicating insufficient demand to counteract the higher-timeframe selling pressure.
Structurally, the daily timeframe for Bitcoin shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that reinforces a persistent downtrend. A decisive breach below the $90,000 mark would expose deeper liquidity levels near $86,000 and $84,000. On the other hand, only a successful reclaim of $96,000 would signal any nascent strength, but current price movements fail to exhibit such momentum.
As the cryptocurrency’s landscape evolves, the interplay of market psychology and critical trading signals continues to drive the narrative. Only time will tell whether Bitcoin can rebound or if it will linger longer in this bear phase.
