As the cryptocurrency landscape prepares to close out another tumultuous year, the banking giant Barclays has released a sobering year-end report forecasting significant challenges ahead for the market in 2026. With projections indicating a downturn in trading volumes, analysts express concerns over the lack of any apparent catalysts to invigorate market activity.
Spot trading volumes have dipped sharply across leading platforms, casting a shadow over exchanges such as Coinbase and Robinhood. These platforms, heavily reliant on robust trading activity, face daunting revenue pressures amid a cooling market. According to Barclays, spot crypto trading volumes are on track for a decline in fiscal 2026, with no clear indications pointing towards a substantial recovery.
CRYPTO WILL FACE A "DOWN YEAR" IN 2026 — BARCLAYS
Banking giant Barclays says crypto could struggle next year without strong catalysts.
Falling spot trading volumes and weak demand could keep prices under pressure. pic.twitter.com/0akJcl98jZ
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) December 15, 2025
In examining the market’s historical patterns, it is evident that significant price movements typically correlate with major events rather than sustained gradual growth. The cryptocurrency market witnessed recent surges during the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in March 2024 and after the pro-crypto results of the November presidential elections. Absent similar catalysts on the horizon, Barclays anticipates that market enthusiasm will remain tepid, reflecting a faded investor appetite compared to previous bull runs.
Regulatory Developments Could Shape Future Activity
Among potential influences on market activity is the anticipated CLARITY Act, which aims to delineate the distinctions between digital commodities and securities. If passed, this legislation would provide clearer regulatory frameworks, delineating responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. Such clarity could encourage operational stability within the crypto sector, fostering innovation and new product launches, especially in tokenized assets.
However, Barclays notes that the act still faces scrutiny as it needs to clear the Senate and potentially navigate legal hurdles. The prevailing optimism surrounding the legislation may already be reflected in current crypto valuations.
Coinbase Faces Headwinds Despite Expansion Efforts
Barclays’ analysis places significant emphasis on Coinbase, which continues to diversify its operations by venturing into derivatives trading and tokenized equity markets. Despite these forward-looking initiatives, the exchange grapples with notable challenges. Declining spot volumes coupled with escalating operational costs are squeezing Coinbase’s business model.
In light of these challenges, Barclays has lowered its price target for Coinbase stock to $291, signalling a more conservative outlook for the exchange’s earnings in the near future. Furthermore, while tokenization garners interest from both crypto firms and traditional financial institutions, Barclays perceives this as an early-stage development with negligible impact on earnings expected for 2026.
With retail trading activity on the decline from prior highs, industry players are pivoting towards sustainable investments in areas such as tokenized finance and compliance infrastructures. Recently, the political environment in the U.S. has turned more favorable for digital assets, with regulatory frameworks transitioning from enforcement-centric approaches to more coherent guidelines.
As Barclays outlines its outlook, 2026 appears to be a year of transition for the cryptocurrency market. Characterized by diminished retail participation and a lack of immediate growth incentives, the outlook calls for careful navigation as the industry readies itself for uncertain waters ahead.
