A recent report reveals that sell-side pressure stemming from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching its saturation point. According to new findings, approximately 1.6 million BTC has been reactivated since 2024, marking one of the largest distributions of Bitcoin by long-term holders in the cryptocurrency’s history.
Vetle Lunde, head of research, explains that the decline in long-term holdings isn’t merely a result of typical wallet movements; it indicates a strategic decision by early investors to cash out at high price levels. This trend has been significantly influenced by the expanding availability of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with growing demand from corporate treasuries, which have provided the liquidity necessary for large-scale sales.
Major Transactions Highlight Ongoing Distribution
The report underscores a series of notable Bitcoin transactions, supporting the narrative of calculated selling. Among these transactions was an immense 80,000 BTC sale by Galaxy in July, followed by a swap of 24,000 BTC for ether in August, and another significant sale of about 11,000 BTC occurring between October and November. These large movements have undeniably affected Bitcoin’s market performance, contributing to its underwhelming results throughout 2025.
According to the analysis, the increased institutional liquidity has been crucial in facilitating these significant transactions. As Bitcoin becomes more embedded within conventional financial environments, thanks to ETF integrations and corporate acquisitions, early holders have successfully executed large sales at lucrative prices, leading to a decreased concentration of ownership and a re-established cost base for a significant portion of Bitcoin circulating supply.
Bitcoin Sell-Side Pressure Set to Ease by 2026
Looking into the future, the report projects that the sell-side pressure from long-term holders is expected to diminish by 2026. After what could be two years of intense selling, the supply held by these investors – currently hovering around 12.16 million BTC – is forecasted to stabilize as older holders cease their sales. As this dynamic unfolds, the market’s focus is predicted to shift toward net buy-side demand.
Additionally, the report hints at a possible portfolio rebalancing drive among institutional investors, potentially triggered by Bitcoin’s underperformance in late 2025. Historically, Bitcoin often reacts inversely to its previous quarter’s performance, suggesting that after a challenging fourth quarter, late December and early January could usher in renewed inflows and a potential price uptick.
K33 Predicts a New Demand Era for Bitcoin
As the supply from long-term holders stabilizes, the report from K33 posits that Bitcoin’s price may experience a resurgence, propelled by sustained buy-side demand. Although supply reactivation typically peaks near market tops, the ongoing integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance could foster a more stable demand landscape.
K33’s insights indicate that the next chapter for Bitcoin could be characterized by escalating interest from both institutional and retail investors, laying a more robust foundation for sustained price growth in the coming years.
