In an audacious forecast, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has recently declared that Bitcoin could soar to an astonishing $200,000 in the coming year. Despite the current downturn in the crypto market, Hayes has pinpointed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s liquidity measures as the catalyst for this anticipated rally.
Hayes’ Prediction of a $200,000 Bitcoin
In his latest Substack publication, Hayes asserted that Bitcoin’s price might swiftly reclaim $124,000, ultimately culminating in a rise towards the coveted $200,000 mark in 2026. He argues that the market will begin to equate the Fed’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) with traditional quantitative easing (QE), thus injecting substantial liquidity into the financial framework.
The Fed recently announced plans to purchase Treasury bills starting from December 12, intending to acquire up to $40 billion over a 30-day period. While the Fed maintains that the maneuver does not constitute QE, Hayes and several market analysts strongly contest this view.
Hayes elucidates that the prevailing misconception regarding RMP not being QE—particularly concerning credit creation—and the uncertainty surrounding its future beyond April next year are driving Bitcoin prices between $80,000 and $100,000 until the new year.
As market sentiment solidifies around RMP as a form of QE, he expects this choppy phase will dispel, paving the way for Bitcoin’s ascent towards $200,000. Furthermore, Hayes anticipates that March 2026 will mark a peak in expectations surrounding RMP, which could lead to a temporary decline before settling above $124,000.
Interestingly, while a $40 billion purchase sounds substantial, Hayes cautions that this amounts to less in real terms compared to similar financial maneuvers in history, especially when evaluated against the backdrop of rising asset prices.
Bear Market Risks: Bitcoin’s Possible Drop to $56,000
However, not all forecasts are bullish. Recent analysis from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin could face a downturn to as low as $56,000 as the market slips into a bear phase. The firm’s assessment hinges on observed demand growth, which has notably slowed since early October 2025, suggesting the current economic backdrop is more precarious than it appears.
CryptoQuant has identified key support levels, with $70,000 being a critical point of intermediate support. The firm posits that during bear markets, price bottoms often align with realized prices, which presently hover around $56,000, amplifying concerns about future price stability.
At the moment, Bitcoin trades at approximately $88,400, reflecting a nearly 2% increase in the past 24 hours, as reported by CoinMarketCap. With intersecting forecasts providing both bullish and bearish scenarios, crypto enthusiasts are advised to stay vigilant as 2026 approaches.
