Bitcoin is grappling to sustain its position above the $70,000 mark as market indicators reveal a concerning decline in demand amid escalating selling pressure. After numerous unfulfilled attempts at recovery, the price trajectory continues to mirror a fragile investor sentiment, further complicated by thinning liquidity and rising volatility. Investors are approaching the market with caution, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, a waning risk appetite, and persistent outflows from speculative assets across the broader crypto landscape.
A recent analysis highlights that the bear market, which began in November 2025, has transitioned to a deeper phase following a drastic price drop last Friday. This decline has pushed total drawdown levels to approximately 46% from the cycle peak, a correction magnitude that historically signifies a shift from early pullbacks to more established bearish conditions. This phase often precedes further deterioration in market sentiment before any stabilization can take place.
The report notes that Bitcoin is nearing the 1.25× Realized Price Band, a critical threshold that differentiates standard price corrections from capitulation phases. As Bitcoin tests this level, the market structure’s sensitivity to liquidity fluctuations and investor behavior intensifies, presenting a crucial moment for traders.
The capacity of Bitcoin to maintain its value above this critical zone could dictate the short-term market direction. A sustained breakdown may indicate deeper capitulation, while stabilization could pave the way for eventual accumulation.
Bear Market Drawdown Indicates Shift to a Deeper Phase
According to the analysis, the current bear market reflects a historical context placed within the Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns framework. This metric provides clarity on the percentage drawdowns from past cycles’ all-time highs on a logarithmic scale, allowing for a more accurate evaluation of structural market pressures beyond nominal price fluctuations.
Since Bitcoin reached approximately $124,450 in October 2025, the subsequent month witnessed the onset of a steady downtrend. Initially, the correction was around 20%-30%, which later intensified to 46% by early February, marking a considerable increase in selling pressure. Notably, this sharp decline occurred rapidly; the drawdown escalated from 28% on January 28 to 46% by February 6. Following this, Bitcoin experienced a slight rebound, stabilizing briefly around $70,700, which still represented a significant drawdown of about 43%.
While previous cycles experienced notably deeper corrections—such as a staggering 93% in 2011 and declines of around 83% during the 2013-2015 and 2017-2018 bear markets—the current downturn appears less severe in comparison. Nevertheless, persistent downside momentum for three months suggests the market may indeed be entering a deeper corrective phase. A stabilization period between 40% and 50% could indicate a moderation in cycle volatility, whereas a drop surpassing 50% might expose targets further down, potentially in the 60% to 70% range.
Bitcoin Tests Essential Support Amid Intensified Downtrend Pressure
Recent price behavior demonstrates a notable weakening of market structure, as Bitcoin tumbled towards the $65,000-$70,000 range. The price action indicates a significant loss of short-term support that has contributed to an aggressive selloff, pushing Bitcoin considerably below key moving averages and revealing entrenched bearish momentum rather than a mere corrective phase.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading under its 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, each trending downward, indicating a likely shift from market consolidation to a well-defined downtrend. The earlier rejection around the mid-$90,000 area solidified a lower high, intensifying risks for further bearish continuation.
Volume movements also deserve scrutiny; the recent sharp spike during the decline hints at compelled selling, often propelled by forced liquidations and investor panic. Historically, such sell-offs can signal capitulation, or potentially foreshadow continued downside if subsequent selling pressures emerge.
The $65,000 threshold is critical for Bitcoin at this juncture. A sustained hold above this level could allow for market stabilization and a possible relief rebound; conversely, a continued descent below this benchmark would likely expose the price to further declines, closer toward the low $60,000 range, where stronger historical support levels may present themselves.
