In a market characterized by volatility, Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $1,957, after experiencing a decline of over 1% in the last 24 hours. For weeks, the second-largest cryptocurrency has faced downward pressure, but recent analysis and on-chain data have started to hint at a potential price floor.
According to Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, Ethereum might be nearing or may have already reached a cycle bottom. He draws on a metric known as the realized price, which represents the average cost basis for holders of ETH on-chain, as a crucial indicator.
Farrell examined two historical cycles to forecast where ETH could find support. In 2022, Ethereum saw a bottom after plunging 39% below its realized price. Similarly, in early 2025, it rebounded after a fall of just 21% beneath that same level. By analyzing these patterns, he posits that if the 2022 pattern repeats, ETH could see a bottom around $1,367. On the other hand, if the 2025 scenario holds, the critical level to watch is $1,770, a mark that ETH may have reached already after briefly touching $1,747 on Binance.
Farrell’s previous market insights included a prediction made last December, where he forecasted Bitcoin would drop to $60,000 and Ethereum would reach $1,800 by early 2026—predictions which have proven to be accurate so far. He now speculates on a potential 80% rally for ETH within the next year, provided prices remain above the $1,300 threshold.
Historic Accumulation Patterns Emerging
While prices linger in a bear market, on-chain data reveals a thriving accumulation trend among investors. Crypto analyst “Batman” highlighted on social media that Ethereum is witnessing one of its strongest accumulation phases in several years. Within the last 24 hours alone, over $490.9 million has flowed into newly created wallet addresses—approximately 2.4 times the ordinary rate. Notably, whale wallets observed inflows of around $39.2 million, a staggering 30.7 times the average.
Additionally, wallets with high profit-and-loss measurements recorded inflows of $46.9 million, representing a 12.2 times increase from the norm. The trend indicates large investors are stealthily increasing their ETH holdings, demonstrating confidence in the asset amid uncertainty.
Interestingly, Ethereum accumulation is surpassing Bitcoin among major holders, suggesting a shift in capital dynamics across the cryptocurrencies. This rising gap in buying momentum between ETH and BTC may signal a potential rotations of funds in the market.
Lack of U.S. Buying Pressure Poses Risk
Despite these prominent accumulation activities, there remains a notable absence of positive buying pressure from U.S. investors. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks net buying or selling activity by American investors, continues to reflect negative sentiment.
Historically, sustainable recoveries in Ethereum’s price have correlated with a shift to net buying from U.S. investors—a crucial factor that is currently lacking. Although selling pressure from U.S. investors eased somewhat in early February, it has yet to turn into net buying.
At present, ETH stands at $1,957, with trading volume reflecting a drop of over 11% in the last 24 hours. As analysts and traders await a decisive shift in market dynamics, the accumulation of ETH by whales offers a glimmer of hope in a generally bearish environment.
