Bitcoin has regained short-term momentum after a roughly 7% surge on Wednesday, offering some relief to a market that had been under consistent selling pressure. This rebound coincided with renewed scrutiny of Jane Street, a global quantitative trading firm entangled in discussions regarding its potential role in the 2022 LUNA collapse, despite the lack of formal proof confirming its responsibility. The resurfacing of this narrative appears to paralleled improved liquidity expectations and short-term repositioning, helping to stabilize sentiment after recent market volatility.
However, beneath this surface optimism lies significant structural stress. According to analyst Darkfost, the On-Chain Trader cohort, defined as holders with coins aged between one and three months, has a realized price near $90,000. With Bitcoin trading around $68,000, this group is experiencing an average unrealized loss of approximately 24%, a situation that historically heightens behavioral sensitivity as these recent entrants react sharply to price fluctuations.
Bitcoin’s Realized Price Bands: A Crucial Inflection Point
Currently, Bitcoin is navigating a precarious stage that may dictate whether this recent uptick transitions into a sustainable recovery or represents merely a fleeting respite within a broader corrective trend. The price continues to linger below the realized price of the 1–3 month on-chain trader cohort, estimated around $90,000, thus placing a significant proportion of recent investors in unrealized loss territory. This dynamic typically amplifies market reactivity, compelling short-term holders to respond quickly to price shifts.
Darkfost’s framework regarding deviation bands offers valuable context for understanding these pressure zones. The established statistical ranges reveal areas where latent profits or losses accumulate. Historically, when Bitcoin approaches the upper “Max” deviation band during this cycle, it has often led to corrective phases, suggesting that overheated positioning triggers distribution or profit-taking.
Currently, however, the narrative is inverted: traders find themselves largely underwater rather than in a profit scenario. This unique positioning mitigates immediate profit-taking risks but heightens vulnerability to further downside movements. Crucially, a considerable recovery is needed before this cohort returns to a comfortable average profit position.
As a result, Bitcoin stands at a technical and behavioral inflection point. Continued stabilization could gradually rebuild market confidence, yet further weakness risks reinforcing defensive stances and prolonging the ongoing corrective phase.
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $65K Amid Structural Challenges
Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin continues to face technical pressures, stabilizing near the $68K region following a significant decline from late-2025’s highs. The price charts illustrate a clear structural breakdown beneath the $90K–$95K zone, which previously served as robust support. This threshold is now acting as resistance, signifying a shift from bullish expansion to a more corrective phase.
The moving averages back this interpretation. Bitcoin is trading below its 50-period and 100-period averages, both of which are beginning to slope downward—a configuration that typically reflects diminishing momentum and weakened trend strength. Although the 200-period average remains lower and still upward sloping, this indicates that the overall trend has not completely reversed but is currently under strain.
Volume dynamics add another dimension to the current landscape. The latest selloff coincided with elevated volume spikes, suggesting forced positioning adjustments rather than gradual distribution. Recovery attempts since have not matched this volume, raising questions about the sustainability of the rebound.
From a structural perspective, it is crucial for Bitcoin to hold above the mid-$60K range. A breach below this level could expose lower liquidity zones and exacerbate downside volatility. Conversely, sustained consolidation here might enable the market to rekindle demand, particularly should broader liquidity conditions begin to improve.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s short-term rebound sparks hope, the underlying pressures and discord among new investors cannot be overlooked. The upcoming days will be vital in determining whether this price action leads to a renewed growth cycle or further entrenchment in a corrective landscape.
