Ethereum is attempting to maintain its position above $2,300 as the market grapples with waves of volatility and uncertainty. The price action seems hesitant, trapped between buyers seeking a reason to engage and sellers who have decisively shaped the derivatives landscape throughout this cycle. However, renowned analyst Darkfost reports that a significant change is underway, worthy of close attention.
Since the beginning of this cycle, Ethereum’s derivatives markets have presented a challenging landscape for bullish sentiment. Net taker volume, which measures the aggressiveness of buyers versus sellers in the market, has largely remained in negative territory.
An illustrative instance occurred in December 2024, when ETH was nearing a new all-time high above $4,000. Instead of buyers chasing this breakout, net taker volume plummeted to -$511 million. The situation only worsened as Ethereum reached its cycle peak just shy of $5,000, where sell-side dominance reached a staggering -$568 million. Sellers were not just present during these highs; they overwhelmed the buying momentum significantly.
This persistent pattern characterized the entire rally, making every upward movement feel contested, unreasonably priced, and ultimately unsustainable.
According to Darkfost, a notable dynamic is evolving. For the first time in this cycle, the landscape within the derivatives markets appears to be shifting, and the emerging replacement for that persistent selling pressure warrants careful consideration.
The Sellers Who Defined This Cycle Just Lost the Upper Hand
Since March, what has dominated Ethereum’s derivatives market has quietly changed. Buy-side volumes have taken the lead, with net taker volume today rising to +$102 million. After a prolonged period of sellers dominating every significant price level— including the all-time high—buyers are now aggressively entering the market.
The historical perspective provided by Darkfostadds weight to this shift. The last time Ethereum’s derivatives market exhibited buying pressure of this caliber was in 2022, when ETH was trading for around $1,000—near the depths of the previous bear market. That moment was significant, as the buyers demonstrated a similar conviction that preceded Ethereum’s remarkable rally.
The ramifications of this shift could be substantial. This cycle has been characterized by a distinct and unusual pattern where sellers not only dominated amidst weakness but seized control during every rally attempt. This relentless selling pressure rendered each of Ethereum’s recoveries fragile and transient.
If buyers are now consistently absorbing the supply rather than retreating, it indicates that the structural landscape for Ethereum is undergoing transformation. While it’s still early—one data point does not signify a sweeping regime change—the shift from -$568 million at the peak to +$102 million today represents a notable movement. It’s the kind of reversal that, if maintained, tends to precede something more significant than a fleeting uptick.
Ethereum Tests Resistance as Recovery Structure Builds
As Ethereum strives to stabilize above the $2,300 threshold following a dramatic capitulation in February that briefly drove prices below $1,800, the recovery appears momentarily constructive. The price is forming a series of higher lows since early March, although a comprehensive structural resolution remains elusive.
The noteworthy element in the current chart is the interaction with the 200-day moving average, which is trending downward and currently sits just above the price. This line has provided dynamic resistance, turning back multiple recovery attempts. When price action recently approached the $2,350 to $2,400 zone, selling pressure once again emerged, reinforcing the idea that sellers are still defending higher levels.
Volume dynamics add another layer to the analysis. The capitulation event in February was marked by a clear spike in volume, indicating forced selling and potential exhaustion. Since that moment, volume has toned down during the recovery, suggesting a more controlled and organic bid instead of impulsive momentum chasing.
Although short-term momentum is improving, Ethereum has yet to confirm a structural shift. A definitive break and sustained position above the 200-day moving average would be necessary to shift from recovery mode to a trend reversal. Until then, the current movement appears to be developing within a range with notable resistance overhead and cautious buyers engaging on dips.
