As Bitcoin’s market dynamics evolve, recent data indicates a substantial shift among short-term holders. CryptoQuant’s analysis reveals that the realized cap UTXO (Unspent Transaction Outputs) age bands for holders of one week to one month have dropped to a mere 3.91%. This represents a level not seen since October 2023, when Bitcoin was trading at around $27,000.
This seemingly quiet yet significant indicator is now garnering attention from analysts, many of whom believe it signals an undervaluation of Bitcoin, especially in the context of current market sentiments.
Bitcoin: A Shift in Investor Sentiment
A survey conducted by Coinbase Institutional Research in collaboration with Glassnode surveyed 91 global investors between March 16 and April 7. This pool of responses included representatives from 29 institutions and 62 individual investors. The findings reveal a stark contrast from the predominant feelings just months prior.
Currently, approximately 82% of institutional respondents and 70% of individual investors categorize the market as being in a late bear or markdown phase. This unambiguous shift in perspective is a notable leap from December, when only about one-third of investors shared this view.
When it comes to Bitcoin’s valuation, the sentiment is similarly pronounced. Approximately 75% of institutional participants and 61% of non-institutional respondents opine that Bitcoin is undervalued at its current price points, with very few labeling it as overpriced.
Expectations regarding Bitcoin’s dominance have also shifted notably. The proportion of institutions believing Bitcoin dominance will rise has plummeted from 40% to just 25%. In contrast, about 54% of those surveyed expect its dominance to hold steady near the current level of 58.1%, with 21% anticipating a decline.
Onchain Metrics Affirm the Undervaluation Narrative
Accompanying these survey observations, onchain data supports the argument that Bitcoin is poised for an upswing. Analyst Woominkyu’s Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which synthesizes four key metrics—MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and investor sentiment—paints a comprehensive picture of Bitcoin’s current state.
Recently, the BCMI experienced an upward shift from 0.26 to 0.37, a range historically associated with periods of deep undervaluation. Its 90-day average, however, continues to trend downwards, indicating that selling pressure has not completely dissipated.
BTC – Is It Approaching a Relatively Undervalued Zone?
“An interpretation based on historical data suggests that the market has entered a zone reasonably close to undervalued territory.” – By @DanCoinvestorpic.twitter.com/qiAkYP5M9l
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2026
According to Woominkyu, this data suggests that the potential downside is becoming increasingly limited in comparison to the long-term upside, indicating that the market could be entering a “value-accumulation zone.”
Further supporting this view, analyst Crypto Dan noted in March that the drop in UTXO age bands indicates Bitcoin is nearing a phase of undervaluation, although he cautioned that a confirmed bottom has yet to be reached.
Reports suggest that historically, when the one-week to one-month UTXO age bands hit such lows since 2021, Bitcoin has typically found its cycle low within three to six months. While not a guarantee for future performance, this historical precedent adds weight to the current analysis.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
