Solana (SOL) is currently hovering around $84 after bouncing off a support level at $81.40, marking a modest recovery in a challenging trading environment. The price surged above $83.50, successfully breaking a bearish trend line that had capped gains at $83.45 on the hourly chart.
This rise coincided with similar upward movements in leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Notably, SOL managed to exceed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level following a pullback from $85.48 to $81.40.
Despite the positive momentum, bearish sentiment persists just under $85. Immediate resistance is established at $84.50, while a crucial level sits at $85.50. For any bullish trend to develop, SOL must overcome $87, which would create pathways toward $92 and eventually $102.
In the absence of such a breakout, bears could take over, targeting supports at $83.45, followed by $82.50, and further down to $81.40. A drop below $81.40 might trigger a slide to the $77 mark.
Declining Network Activity Causes Concern
Analyzing on-chain data reveals troubling signs for Solana. The platform’s transaction volume has diminished for nine consecutive weeks, now sitting at a staggering 32% below its peak of 959 million transactions witnessed in early February.
The trading volume for SOL has also dropped significantly, with recent figures showing only $22 billion in trades last week. This is about half of the trading volume that occurred during the bullish period from April to September 2025, indicating a stark decrease in market activity.
Despite broader market rallies in April—where Bitcoin surged 14% and Ethereum gained 10%—Solana lagged with a mere 2.8% increase during the same timeframe. Year-to-date performance shows SOL down 33%, making it the poorest performer among the top five cryptocurrencies.
Macro Factors Weighing on Altcoins
The wider macroeconomic landscape appears to be adding downward pressure on altcoins. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose from 2.8% in February to 3.5% in March, largely attributed to surging energy prices. Oil prices are back above $100, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in its recent meeting, with no cuts foreshadowed for this year. Jerome Powell’s final address as Fed Chair included hints of internal disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding future policy direction.
In this risk-averse environment, investors are shifting capital towards safer assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, showing diminished enthusiasm for altcoins such as SOL.
Technical Indicators Raise Red Flags
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for SOL recently dipped to around 30 before crossing above its 14-week moving average in mid-April. Historical patterns indicate that a similar scenario unfolded in November 2022, where SOL experienced a drop from $13 to $9 prior to a significant rally.
If this pattern were to recur, it could herald a decline in SOL’s price to the low $50s before any subsequent major upward movement materializes.
For two months, SOL has traded within a tight range of $77 to $90, frequently thwarted by robust selling pressure at around $90. Presently, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with participants closely observing potential breakout signals.
