Bitcoin has now climbed nearly 30% since the US-Iran war began on February 28 — a run that has outpaced both gold and the S&P 500 even as the conflict continues to shake global markets.
A Week Of Potential Catalysts
Two significant events in the US Senate this week could add more fuel to Bitcoin’s rally, according to 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen.
The first is a Monday vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair. The second is a Thursday markup session for the CLARITY Act in the Senate Banking Committee.
Thielen described the crypto legislation as the most significant of its kind in years, one that could bring long-awaited regulatory certainty to digital assets.
Regarding Warsh — who is viewed as more hawkish on inflation than current Fed chair Jerome Powell — Thielen mentioned that his confirmation would clear away uncertainty rather than create it. Both events, he asserted, lean bullish for Bitcoin.
The backdrop to all this is a conflict that shows no signs of resolution anytime soon. The US-Iran war, which erupted after a US airstrike killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has rattled financial markets for the past 10 weeks.
One of the central flashpoints is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes.
Oil climbed another 4.5% to $98.68 per barrel following Trump’s latest statement, adding pressure to an already strained economic picture.
Bitcoin’s Swing After Trump’s Post
On Sunday, Trump took to Truth Social to outright reject Iran’s counteroffer to a peace deal, which included demands for war reparations and the unfreezing of blocked financial assets — conditions Trump flatly dismissed.
Bitcoin initially slid on the news, dropping from $81,400 to $80,500 within 45 minutes of the post. However, it quickly rebounded. Within three hours, the price had surged back above $82,000, breaking through $81,000 on the way up and ultimately settling near $82,350.
Data indicates that this rapid movement wiped out over $60 million in short positions within a four-hour window.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further complicated prospects for peace, stating that the war would not conclude until Iran’s uranium sites are fully dismantled.
Hopes Fade For Early End To The Conflict
Peace talks had been anticipated to gain traction by Wednesday, but Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal has cast a shadow over those prospects for now.
In a fascinating turn, Bitcoin has exhibited behavior unlike traditional assets, rising even as geopolitical tensions intensify, oil prices soar, and ceasefire discussions falter.
Featured image from The Leaflet, chart from TradingView
