On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are now grappling with more underwater supply than during the 2022 bear market’s nadir. This alarming trend was underscored by analyst CryptoVizArt in a recent post, highlighting the challenges faced by those who have held their Bitcoin for extended periods.
“Long-term holders” are defined as investors who have retained their BTC for more than 155 days, a category that implies a significant commitment to holding. These investors make up one of the primary segments of the Bitcoin market, contrasting with short-term holders (STHs) who have acquired their coins within the last five months. Historically, LTHs are seen as the market’s backbone, with their long-term positions suggesting a lower likelihood of selling.
Currently, the LTH group, whose holdings date back to before January, finds themselves in a precarious situation. As of now, Bitcoin is trading below the price at which many of these long-term holders bought their assets, meaning a substantial segment of this cohort is currently underwater.
According to the data presented by CryptoVizArt, the amount of Bitcoin held by LTHs at a loss has surged dramatically. This spike comes on the heels of a bearish trend that has pervaded the market since the beginning of 2026, with notable downturns observed in February and again more recently.
The latest analysis indicates that LTHs are currently holding approximately 5.3 million BTC at a loss, a figure that exceeds the losses recorded during the chaotic aftermath of the FTX collapse. This figure is not only alarming in isolation but also reflects a broader trend of distress among long-term holders, as this level of underwater supply has not been seen in other recent bear markets. The only comparable event was the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, which similarly saw drastic declines in asset values.
Historically, extreme levels of underwater supply among LTHs have often signaled market lows. The current metrics suggest that the resolution process is still ongoing, as stated by CryptoVizArt. This raises critical questions about the future trajectory of Bitcoin prices: will the underwater losses of LTHs escalate further, or will a trend reversal emerge in the coming weeks?
Current Market Status
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $64,000, reflecting a decline of over 13% in just the past week. This downward trend has intensified the pain felt by long-term holders and raises concerns about the overall market sentiment moving forward.
In conclusion, the current situation underscores the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the unique challenges faced by long-term investors. As they weather this storm, the behavior of these holders will be pivotal in shaping the future of Bitcoin’s price action.
