Bitcoin has recently pulled back to around $78,000 after reaching a three-month high of $81,500 earlier this week. This price adjustment marks a remarkable 31% gain since August 1, when BTC was trading at $62,229.
This recent decline has not altered the broader landscape for larger investors. On-chain data indicates that wallets holding substantial amounts of BTC have been actively accumulating during this price surge. Conversely, smaller wallets, defined as those holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC, are showing signs of distribution, with an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982, indicating they have been selling into the rally.
This trend—where whales are accumulating while retail investors are selling—often suggests a shift of assets from short-term holders to long-term investors. Such a divergence typically points to a healthy market dynamic, where seasoned investors are positioning themselves for potential gains.
Interestingly, six wallets that had been dormant since 2011 to 2014 recently moved a total of 553.59 BTC, valued at approximately $40 million, between August 16 and August 26. Five of these wallets transferred their coins to addresses with no known exchange affiliations, while one wallet sent 40 BTC to Boerse Stuttgart Digital.
According to Galaxy Research, dormant Bitcoin activity in Q2 2026 has dropped to its lowest level since 2022, with projections indicating that the entire year will see less than half the dormant activity compared to 2025.
BTC and Gold: A Shifting Correlation
Grayscale data reveals that Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has surged above 50%, a stark increase from near zero at the beginning of 2026. Meanwhile, its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has decreased to approximately 33%, down from over 60% earlier this year. This shift in correlation is occurring amidst renewed concerns regarding U.S. fiscal policy, especially as federal debt has now eclipsed $40 trillion. Such economic conditions are prompting investors to gravitate towards scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin faced a significant rejection at the $81,500 level, with the next key support level resting between $74,000 and $75,000. If Bitcoin manages to hold above this support, it could signal a resumption of its upward trajectory.
Key Levels to Watch
For bullish investors, the critical level to monitor is $73,880, where the -0.5 MVRV pricing band is positioned. Maintaining a price above this threshold is essential for preserving the current recovery structure. A daily close above $84,000, supported by strong trading volume, could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach the coveted $100,000 mark—an objective identified through both technical analysis and MVRV band metrics.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has expressed optimism, suggesting that Bitcoin has a “good chance” of hitting $100,000 by the end of the year. Similarly, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has indicated that Bitcoin could eventually surpass gold’s total market capitalization.
As of August 29, BTC was trading at $78,062, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the previous day.
