Bitcoin’s journey toward the coveted $90,000 mark has hit a significant snag, with prices lingering below $87,722 after reaching $87,197 on October 2. The leading cryptocurrency has recently retreated closer to the $84,000 threshold, raising questions about its immediate future.
According to analysts at Bitfinex, this pullback coincides with a dramatic decline in weekly exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, plummeting from $2.39 billion to just $241.1 million—a staggering drop of approximately 90%. The analysts forecast Bitcoin will likely oscillate between $84,000 and $87,722 in the coming week, indicating that any significant upward movement may hinge on new spot buying activity.
ETF Investors Reach Breakeven
Recent data from Checkonchain reveals that the average purchase price for ETF investors is now pegged at $84,320. Bitcoin remained below this price point for an arduous 233 days before reclaiming it on September 21. The slow pace of buying may be attributed to investors finally breaking even, as market behavior typically shifts once a profit cushion is established.
On September 30, a substantial withdrawal of $148.7 million from ETFs interrupted a nine-day inflow streak, which had totaled $3.08 billion. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT led the inflows with $450.2 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC experienced a withdrawal of $168 million.
Trader Ted, known for his insightful analyses, estimates the likelihood of Bitcoin breaching the $100,000 threshold this year at around 40%. However, he cautions that the actual odds could be lower, attributing this to diminishing spot demand and increasing leverage in the market. He speculates that the $100,000 milestone may not materialize until early 2027.
Liquidations Hit Hundreds of Millions
In a concerning development, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $84,000 mark late Tuesday, trading as low as $83,800 before settling at $84,071—a decrease of 1.7% within a 24-hour period. Liquidations across the crypto market soared to $555.6 million, with long positions constituting a hefty $487.2 million of that total.
Zeus Research analyst Dominick John attributes this pullback primarily to profit-taking and forced liquidations stemming from a buildup in open interest and funding rates. Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Bitcoin’s bull market support band is rising swiftly to align with recent price movements, noting that retests of this band often occur later in a bull cycle.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered a reading of 62 on Tuesday, down from 67 the previous day, indicating a slight cooling in market sentiment but still reflecting an overall atmosphere of greed.
ViaBTC chief analyst Jeff Ko reported that Bitcoin closed the third quarter approximately 40% higher, with ETF inflows totaling $6.5 billion. He emphasized that maintaining levels between $82,000 and $83,000 could characterize the recent pullback as a normal pause following the September breakout.
Looking ahead, Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang identified the critical downside liquidation zone between $82,000 and $82,500. A breach of this range could see Bitcoin testing the $80,000 mark. For a more bullish outlook, Zhang suggested that Bitcoin needs to hold above $82,000 and reclaim $87,500 to aim for $95,000. Bitfinex notes that $84,000 is a crucial level, with around 75% of supply remaining in profit.
As treasury yields linger at 19-year highs, with five-year yields exceeding 5% and ten-year yields at 5.2%, market dynamics remain tense. The upcoming inflation report, set to release on October 14, will precede the Federal Reserve’s late-October meeting and could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.
As the market watches these developments closely, the question remains: Is Bitcoin’s ascent to $100,000 still within reach this year? Only time will tell.
